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Don't Write Off Victory Chances for France's Le Pen

Image: Don't Write Off Victory Chances for France's Le Pen

Supporters of far-right leader and candidate for the 2017 French presidential election Marine Le Pen hold flags and a poster while waiting to attend a meeting in Marseille, France. Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron are among four leading candidates seen as most likely to progress from Sunday's first round and to reach the May 7 runoff between the top two. (Michel Euler/AP)

By Michael Flanagan
Wednesday, 19 Apr 2017 03:49 PM Current | Bio | Archive

Marine Le Pen, candidate for president of the French Republic, has been running ahead of the pack for several months. The press has reluctantly admitted that she is the frontrunner, but they are also quick to observe that she has "no chance" of victory in the run-off two weeks afterward. Wishful thinking.

We on the right are used to being dismissed by the press and we have learned to look for the actual indicators of victory. These indicators are well-hidden in the stories and must be discerned through the dismissive language used by the very young, idealistic, and hopelessly partisan who make-up the core of the mainstream press.

First, we on the right learn to look for the level of dismissiveness accorded to our candidates. Le Pen has much more than her fair share. From the beginning of her candidacy, she has been first regarded as a crank, then as an also-ran to more "qualified" candidates. She's now also seen as a pyrrhic victor who cannot possibly win the runoff.

The press stubbornly refuses to admit that she can win it all even though they would be talking of little else if a different candidate were ahead. However ridiculous the press increasingly appears, they cannot afford to allow their bias to slip at this late date.

On the contrary, she has a great chance to win convincingly this coming Sunday, setting her candidacy up for a win on May 7. An overwhelming victory this week will make the fact that she will steamroll to a win in the runoff almost a fait accompli (sorry about using the foreign term but I had to get some French in this story). A close victory will have less of this "steamroller" effect, but she will still be leading going into the runoff. A  position any of her opponents would dearly like to claim.

Second, we on the right look for the level of vitriol and hysterical attention to the slightest controversy attaching to our candidate — which when done or said by other candidates is entirely ignored. The media accords this special attention only to threats to the leftist order made by right candidates who might win.

In the case of our Marine Le Pen, the left has searched and searched for the telltale marking of the anti-Semite they so wish her to be. She isn’t one and has worked overtime to demonstrate the negative — a hard task in any candidate’s life. She has obtained approving statements from the cream of French Jewish society, even traveling to Israel to show her sincere and genuine affection for all Frenchmen — including its important Jewish community.

This past week she was faced with a "do you still beat your wife" question about an unbearably horrible incident during World War II during which hundreds of French Jews were betrayed and executed by the collaborationist government in Vichy France.

In a last-ditch effort to "expose" her as an anti-Semite, Le Pen was asked about whether the French should apologize for this incident. She responded that the French had nothing for which to apologize. Pay Dirt!

Marine Le Pen had to then spend days explaining that the incident was indeed horrible, a war crime and worthy of the most severe punishment and that her statement was not designed to justify this atrocity but that the real French government was in exile and that the Nazi puppet government had perpetrated the execution.

In this explanation, she was successful but it did give the press a few days to unfairly bash her — to little avail if the polls are accurate.

Last, every frontrunner on the right will be subjected to leftist violence. Le Pen’s Paris headquarters were firebombed last week, her rallies have been peppered with mob attacks and now, this week, a cache of explosives has been discovered by the authorities revealing that these explosives were intended to disrupt the presidential election — one she is predicted to win on Sunday.

Through all of this, Marine Le Pen has succeeded in capturing the hearts of the French to a point where she is the clear plurality frontrunner on Sunday. She has not retreated one iota, doubling-down on some of her most strident positions. In fact, yesterday she had the flag of the European Union removed from the background of an interview she was to do this week. To the delight of her followers and supporters, her campaign called the EU flag "oligarchic rag." Whoopee!

She has garnered support for her populist message. Significant portions of French society in such disparate places ranging from the gay community to the steel workers are behind her. She is greeted by throngs wherever she goes. The youth is increasingly in her corner looking for a leader — of the French.

Recent polling has put the number of undecided voters in France at one-third of the possible electorate. In the face of this, Le Pen is trending upwards in the most recent polling — not leveling off to consolidate her support. This is the true sign of a big winner in the making — the undecided may be coming to her.

There is much work to do, many factors will have to come together to make a victory for her on Sunday — and then again two weeks later. She is doing what is required and, in this humble scribe’s estimation, Marine Le Pen is effectively earning victory — a big one.

Michael Patrick Flanagan represented the 5th District of Illinois in the historic 104th Congress. Prior to his Congressional Service, Michael was commissioned in the United States Army Field Artillery. Michael and his firm, Flanagan Consulting LLC, have represented both large and small corporations, organizations, and associations. In 2009, Michael entered public service again with the United States Department of State in Iraq as the Senior Rule of Law Advisor on the Maysan Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Maysan, Iraq. For more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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MichaelFlanagan
Recent polls put the number of France's undecided voters at one-third of the possible electorate. Le Pen is trending upwards in the most recent polling, not leveling off to consolidate her support. This is the true sign of a big winner in the making, the undecided may be coming to her.
france, jews, le pen
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2017-49-19
 

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