Donald Trump’s shock election victory may have given U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May unexpected leverage in the coming Brexit talks.
With the president-elect casting doubt on the U.S. commitment to NATO, Britain’s military strength and intelligence capabilities may now be in more demand from European Union countries worried about terrorism and Russian expansionism.
Officials in May’s government, speaking on condition of anonymity, say they see an opportunity to win goodwill with other EU nations in the run-up to potentially difficult negotiations about leaving the bloc.
The U.K. has the second-largest defense budget in NATO, as well as intelligence capabilities that can be put to use in helping to battle terrorism and cyber-warfare across the region.
Eastern European countries may be particularly open to continued assistance from the U.K given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine. The U.K. was a key supporter of maintaining sanctions against Russia and has put troops in the region. Some of these countries have been most resistant to U.K. attempts to restrict migration.
“Part of it’s already happening, in that we are forward-deploying troops to the Baltics,” Crispin Blunt, chairman of Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview. “Within the negotiations on exit terms is going to be a negotiation on common security policy. It’s an obvious common interest that we should be fully engaged.”
EU Security
A long-standing priority of the other 27 EU countries is that any divorce deal with the U.K. safeguards the stability of the bloc, according to two European diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity. Military and intelligence-sharing commitments from Britain would be a way to deliver that.
Britain said in October it was sending Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft to Romania to “offer reassurance” to allies around the Black Sea. It is also sending 800 troops to Estonia, including armored infantry, tanks and drones.
Further such moves would be expensive, but increased military spending is one area that May would have little difficulty persuading her Conservative lawmakers to support.
Magnus Roar Bech of the Quilliam Foundation, a counter-extremism think tank, said the U.K. and U.S. are among just five NATO countries to spend the equivalent of 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, a rate Trump said during the campaign he wanted others to match.
“It gives the U.K. leverage because the U.K. and U.S. have a similar approach with both perceiving NATO as the main security-providing institution in the liberal West,” said Roar Bech.
Still, if EU states push forward with integrating defense capabilities then that would deprive May of leverage in the Brexit negotiations, he said.
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