The Russia-Ukraine war could reach 2 million overall casualties by this spring, according to a new study.
An extensive analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) paints a grim picture of a grinding war of attrition that has produced staggering human losses on both sides with little strategic payoff.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, nearly 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded, or gone missing, while Ukrainian casualties are estimated at between 500,000 and 600,000.
Combined casualties now stand at roughly 1.8 million and are projected to reach 2 million by spring 2026 if current trends continue, according to CSIS.
The study estimates Russian fatalities alone at as many as 325,000 — a death toll unmatched by any major power in a single conflict since World War II.
Ukrainian troop deaths are estimated between 100,000 and 140,000, an enormous loss for a country with a far smaller population and military.
Despite claims by Russian President Vladimir Putin that his forces are advancing "with confidence," the data shows Russia is paying an extraordinary blood price for minimal territorial gains.
Since early 2024, Russian forces have captured less than 1.5% of Ukraine's territory, often advancing only a few dozen meters per day in key offensives.
In some sectors, progress has been slower than the notoriously deadly World War I Battle of the Somme.
Russia has maintained troop levels despite massive losses by launching its first draft since World War II, recruiting prisoners and debtors, and paying hefty enlistment bonuses.
As many as 15,000 North Korean troops have fought alongside Russian forces, with hundreds believed killed, The New York Times reported.
Ukraine, meanwhile, faces its own demographic and military strain.
While Russian casualties outnumber Ukrainian losses by roughly 2-to-1, Ukraine is losing a larger share of its much smaller fighting force.
Ukrainian troops have relied heavily on trench systems, mines, drones, and layered defenses to slow Russian advances, inflicting heavy casualties but at enormous cost.
Both sides have adapted tactics to the realities of drone-saturated battlefields.
Russia increasingly uses small infantry units on foot or motorcycles, while Ukraine tracks footprints and vehicle marks in snow to target advancing troops. The result has been relentless, close-range combat with devastating human consequences.
The CSIS study emphasizes a sobering reality: This war is being fought primarily through attrition, not decisive maneuver, and the human cost continues to skyrocket.
While Russia is clearly weakened — economically, militarily, and demographically — Ukraine is also bleeding manpower at an unsustainable rate.
CSIS analysts conclude that Russia is no longer a true great power by most measures, despite its nuclear arsenal. Yet the Kremlin appears willing to absorb enormous casualties to avoid defeat.
For the United States and its allies, the findings raise urgent questions about strategy, end goals, and how long such losses can continue before diplomacy becomes unavoidable.
As peace talks inch forward, the numbers tell a brutal story: Every month the war drags on adds tens of thousands more dead, wounded, and missing, with no clear winner in sight.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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