Oil price forecasts tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are drawing attention, though many of the projections remain speculative and depend on how long the Middle East conflict lasts.

Axios reported that some analysts have suggested prices could climb as high as $200 a barrel if the waterway remains closed, but those estimates are based on worst-case scenarios rather than current market conditions.

Oil prices have risen in recent weeks, briefly approaching $120 a barrel, while U.S. gasoline prices have increased to above $4 a gallon.

Several firms have issued projections tied to different timelines for the war. One analysis suggested prices could exceed $150 if damage to oil infrastructure occurs, while another placed a higher price scenario near $200 if disruptions extend into the summer.

Energy experts say the Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route, with 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passing through the narrow corridor.

At the same time, current prices have not reached those projected extremes, in part because of short-term supply factors, including oil already in transit and releases from strategic reserves.

Those buffers may not last indefinitely, so the pace and extent of any future price increases remain uncertain.

Past oil price spikes provide some context. Prices peaked below $150 a barrel in 2008 before falling during the global recession and reached $139 per barrel in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts note that price forecasts tied to conflict scenarios often reflect potential outcomes rather than firm expectations and can shift quickly as conditions change.

While some countries have reported fuel shortages and taken precautionary steps, the global market response has remained below the most extreme projections.

The direction of oil prices will depend on whether supply routes reopen, how long disruptions continue, and whether global production adjusts to offset any losses.

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