Former National Security Council official Nate Swanson warned that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could lead to a prolonged conflict with little chance of a near-term resolution.

He cited overconfidence on both sides and a lack of viable diplomatic off-ramps.

Swanson, who previously served as the NSC’s director for Iran before departing the administration following criticism from Trump ally Laura Loomer, said current dynamics suggest neither Washington nor Tehran is prepared to compromise.

“I think both sides are probably irrationally confident in their standing, and so I think that’s a little worrisome,” Swanson told Politico.

“The war is probably going to go on longer than anyone anticipated.”

According to Swanson, former President Donald Trump continues to operate under the assumption that military pressure will force Iran into political capitulation. However, he argued that this expectation has not materialized and is unlikely to do so.

“Trump continues to believe that military success is leading to Iranian political capitulation, which isn’t happening,” he said.

Swanson emphasized that Iranian leadership remains committed to resisting U.S. demands and is increasingly confident in its own position.

“Iran has a vote and Iran is dead set on resisting and defying expectations,” he said, adding that Tehran appears to believe it holds leverage in the standoff. “They feel like they should be making the demands, not the U.S.”

Swanson warned that this mutual confidence, combined with the absence of a clear diplomatic pathway, raises the likelihood of further escalation.

“I think we’re going to be stuck in this conflict longer and with likely escalations to come,” Swanson said.

He also pointed to the possibility of expanded military engagement, including potential ground operations under consideration by U.S. leadership.

But Swanson noted that similar proposals have already been rejected by Iran in prior negotiations, further diminishing prospects for de-escalation.

“The problem is the president is not going to get any off-ramp,” Swanson said. “I don’t think either side is ready to compromise.”

Swanson’s remarks come amid heightened scrutiny of U.S. strategy toward Iran and growing concerns among foreign policy experts that entrenched positions on both sides could prolong instability in the region.

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