NATO and its allies are being encouraged to build a fleet of polar-capable drones to monitor Russia's expanding military activity in the Arctic.

There is growing concern over China's increased presence in the region as well.

The recommendation was made in a Dec. 16 report by the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington, D.C., think tank. It emphasized that current allied drone procurement remains "fragmented, slow, and risk-averse," leaving capability gaps that Moscow and Beijing might exploit.

"The next decade is a decisive window of opportunity," the report stated, adding that those fastest to adapt to the challenges of the harsh terrain "will shape a future Arctic security architecture capable of deterring and defeating emerging threats."

The Pentagon's 2024 Arctic Strategy identified unmanned aerial systems and related technologies as crucial to enhancing domain awareness and maintaining a credible deterrent in the Arctic.

It directed the Department of War to enhance Arctic capabilities, deepen cooperation with allies, and increase readiness for high-latitude operations, including the use of unmanned systems that can operate in harsh, cold environments.

U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command leaders have described drones as a necessary "gap filler" in the Arctic until more advanced over-the-horizon radar systems and other sensor networks come online, underscoring their importance for low-altitude surveillance in areas where traditional sensors are limited.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly underscored the Arctic's importance to U.S. national security, at times publicly floating the idea of purchasing Greenland from Denmark as a means of expanding American influence and countering Russia and China in the region.

Allies are taking steps, too. NATO members such as Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Canada are investing in winter-rated drones and broader Arctic defense capabilities. For example, Denmark's recent defense investment plan includes the acquisition of drones and satellite surveillance systems to be deployed in Greenland to support surveillance and patrol missions.

But the extreme Arctic environment remains a technical and operational challenge because temperatures can quickly drain batteries and icing can overwhelm aircraft systems.

NATO planners are exploring a range of uncrewed platforms, the report stated, from high-altitude long-endurance drones like the MQ-4C Triton that can provide persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance across vast areas, to smaller tactical systems adapted for cold-weather operations.

The report argued that uncrewed systems alone will not secure NATO's northern flank, but they can significantly expand situational awareness and deterrence if integrated properly.

To do so, the authors urged NATO and Arctic allies to speed up joint procurement, move away from adapting warm-weather drones after the fact, and invest early in systems designed for extreme cold.

They also called for updated doctrine, expanded Arctic training, improved intelligence sharing and better infrastructure to support sustained operations.

Without those reforms, the report warned, technological potential risks outpacing NATO's ability to field credible, reliable capability in the Arctic as Russia and China continue to press their advantage.

"Overall, while year-round viability through the Northern Sea Route may not emerge until late in the century, Russia and China are already positioning themselves for long-term access and control," the report stated. "For NATO and Arctic allies, this increases exposure of Arctic Ocean sea lanes, critical underwater infrastructure and strategic chokepoints to surveillance, interference, and hybrid threats, thus giving Moscow and Beijing new threat vectors vis-à-vis the alliance."

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