Three weeks into a widening conflict across the Middle East, Iran is projecting confidence that it holds the upper hand and is seeking to translate battlefield leverage into sweeping geopolitical gains, including control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Officials in Tehran say the country is not only weathering U.S. and allied strikes, but also reshaping the balance of power in global energy markets, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Iranian leaders have floated plans to impose fees on ships passing through the narrow waterway, a move that would effectively turn one of the world's most critical transit routes into an Iranian-controlled toll system.

The waterway handles a third of global seaborne oil, making any disruption — or new cost structure — potentially transformative for the global economy.

Iranian leaders increasingly describe the conflict as a strategic success. 

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has likened the war to another Vietnam-style quagmire for the U.S., while other officials insist Tehran has no urgency to negotiate.

Analysts say Iran's posture is rooted in its ability to sustain attacks across the region. 

Missile and drone strikes have hit energy infrastructure in Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, while Iran's own oil exports have continued largely uninterrupted.

"The Iranians aren't ready to end the war because they have learned they can cause significant disruption at relatively low cost," said Dina Esfandiary, an expert on Iranian foreign policy.

At the same time, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically, with vessels requiring what regional observers describe as tacit Iranian approval to pass safely. 

Rising oil and gas prices have added pressure on global markets and policymakers.

Tehran's conditions for ending the conflict go far beyond a ceasefire. 

Iranian officials have called for reparations from America and its allies, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, and formal recognition of a new security order centered on Iran.

One of the stickiest proposals involves formalizing Iranian authority over the Strait of Hormuz, including charging transit fees to commercial vessels. 

Such a move would challenge longstanding international norms guaranteeing free navigation through international waterways.

President Donald Trump has delivered mixed messages about Washington's intentions.

Earlier in the week, Trump suggested the U.S. wanted little to do with Hormuz, raising questions about whether Washington might scale back its involvement. He said none of the oil transiting the strait goes to America.

But by Saturday, his tone had shifted sharply. He warned Iran of potential military strikes on its power plants if it did not reopen the waterway to free navigation.

The administration has also deployed additional Marines and military assets to the region, signaling preparation for a possible escalation even as Trump publicly states the war could end "in the near future."

This dual messaging appears aimed at keeping markets and adversaries off balance, though critics say it risks emboldening Tehran.

Meanwhile, defense analysts were surprised by Iran’s launch of a ballistic missile nearly 2,500 miles this weekend.

For years, most confirmed Iranian ballistic missiles were assessed at 1,500 miles at most.

This matters because range isn't just about propulsion; it also reflects advances in guidance systems, fuel efficiency (often solid fuel), and staging technology.

Analysts have long warned that Iran's space-launch programs could translate into longer-range missile development, meaning the technical leap may have been underestimated rather than sudden.

Despite Iran's confidence, military experts caution that control of the Strait of Hormuz is far from settled.

Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula said reopening the waterway would not be immediate but remains achievable through sustained operations targeting Iranian missile and drone capabilities.

Others warn that underestimating U.S. resolve could prove costly for Tehran. Jason Greenblatt, a former U.S. envoy, said Iran's apparent "hubris" risks provoking a stronger U.S. response.