The outcome of the war with Iran remains uncertain, and the Iranian regime may prove more resilient than the Trump administration expects, Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned Sunday on Newsmax.
Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator who served under administrations from Presidents Jimmy Carter through George W. Bush, also described the conflict as potentially a "war of choice" and emphasized the need for clear strategic objectives before launching military action.
"Well, whether it's a war of choice or a war of necessity, you need to have clear and feasible goals," Miller said on Newsmax's "Sunday Agenda."
He said several conditions are essential before beginning a war, including reliable intelligence and a clear understanding of the adversary.
"You have to launch the war based on proven and accurate intelligence," he said. "You have to understand your adversary and judge that adversary correctly in terms of capacity, motivation."
Miller added that preparation is critical, recalling advice from former Secretary of State James Baker.
"I worked for James Baker, one of the most consequential secretaries of state in the modern period, other than [Henry] Kissinger," Miller said. "I think Baker had five P's: prior preparation prevents poor performance."
The analyst said the war's ultimate outcome remains unclear and predicted the conflict could continue for weeks.
"I think basically the final word of this war is not yet in by any shot, any long shot," Miller said.
He also questioned whether the U.S. campaign would achieve lasting results if Iran's ruling system remains intact.
"The real question is, in the end, what will be the major accomplishments if the regime is left in place?" Miller said.
"I have not talked to any Iranian analysts, regardless of who they voted for or what political ideology they ascribe to, that argues this regime is more resilient, more capable and more committed to its survival than I suspect the administration has calculated," he said.
Miller said some analysts believe President Donald Trump hoped Iran might respond in a way that would quickly resolve the conflict.
"Trump was looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez," Miller said, referencing a remark from his Carnegie colleague Karim Sadjadpour. "More likely, he's going to end up with an Iranian Kim Jong Un."
The host asked whether the Trump administration could simply declare victory and pursue a ceasefire. Trump said Sunday in a call with NBC's Kristen Welker that Iran is ready to negotiate but that the proposed terms are not yet acceptable.
Miller said many political constituencies in the United States would welcome a rapid end to the conflict.
"I don't think there's a single constituency that is important to President Trump that would do anything other than breathe a collective sigh of relief if he did exactly what you just said," Miller said.
But he added that Iran may not allow the U.S. to exit the conflict easily.
"I think the problem is the Iranians may not let him out of this so quickly or easily," Miller said.
According to Miller, Iran likely has three main objectives: maintaining regime stability, imposing costs on the United States and its regional partners, and establishing deterrence against future attacks.
"Number one, demonstrate regime continuity and resilience," he said. "Number two, impose a serious cost on the United States and particularly on its Gulf partners. And number three, create a measure of deterrence."
Miller said such deterrence could discourage outside powers from attempting a similar attack in the future.
"So if in effect a year, two, three years from now, assuming the Iranian regime or some semblance of the regime as we've known it exists, create a measure of deterrence that may well check an external power from trying this again," he said.
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