With attacks on the two largest aluminum smelters in the Middle East over the weekend, Iran has struck major suppliers of a strategic metal that the U.S. does not produce in sufficient quantities domestically, analysts said.

Before the weekend, disruption from the conflict with Iran had centered on the difficulty of shipping aluminum and raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by Tehran.

But on Saturday, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said its Al Taweelah facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates — with capacity of about 1.5 million metric tons per year — had sustained significant damage from Iranian attacks. Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) said its 1.6 million tons-per-year plant was also targeted the same day.

Neither company has provided an update on operations since. The attacks have shifted concerns from temporary shipping disruptions to a potentially more serious threat to regional production.

"That changes the nature of the risk," Paul Adkins, head of aluminum consultancy AZ Global, wrote on LinkedIn.

London Metal Exchange aluminum prices reacted on Monday, leaping 6% to $3,492 a ton, near a four-year high.

"In this sort of market, when you suddenly take out 3 million tons of capacity, it cannot be replaced," said Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum.

Aluminum, widely used in cars and packaging and included on the U.S. government's list of 60 critical minerals, is now seeing supply chain risks materialize.

The U.S. relies on imports for about 60% of its aluminum needs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It produced just 660,000 tons of primary aluminum in 2025 — less than half the output of Alba alone.

Of the 3.4 million tons of total U.S. imports of primary and alloyed aluminum last year, nearly 22% came from the Middle East, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.

The UAE and Bahrain — through EGA and Alba — account for more than two-thirds of the Gulf region's aluminum production and were America's second- and fourth-largest suppliers, respectively.

Iran said both EGA and Alba were linked to U.S. military industries, and the attacks followed Israeli strikes on two Iranian steel facilities.

Analysts, however, expressed skepticism.

"There's no direct link to the U.S. military other than that some of their metal might eventually go into military applications through a long chain of transactions and processing," said Uday Patel, a senior research manager at Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that U.S. military and defense industries consume about 450,000 tons of aluminum annually.

Price said he believes the U.S. military sources most of its aluminum from Canada.

While the U.S. military may not be directly affected, Iran's targeting of Gulf production — and the potential escalation of the conflict — could still have broader economic consequences.

"The stresses are already starting to show in terms of industrial activity and are further hampering planning, which was already struggling amid high levels of uncertainty," said Natalie Scott-Gray, an analyst at StoneX.