Two military experts, retired U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt and retired U.S. Army Reserve Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer, agreed on Newsmax Saturday that the armed rebellion in Russia led by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin likely will be put down quickly, but the push will cause Russian President Vladimir Putin strategic worries.
"I don't think you're going to see any great progress in a war like that," Shaffer, the president of the London Center for Policy Research, commented on Newsmax's "Wake Up America," adding that with "25,000 men, they're not going to win the war."
For Prigozhin to be successful, most of Russia's general staff will have to defect, he added. "Remember Prigozhin runs what I can only describe as the ultimate Frankenstein of paramilitary organizations, something that has criminal elements," Shaffer said. "It has elements of the Foreign Legion [and] elements of the Russian underworld and prison system."
Prigozhin is also a former convicted criminal who has spent time behind bars, he continued, and his troops "do things that Putin wants done that they can't legally, as the Russian Republic, do. They do the dirty work."
The stress and friction between Prigozhin's Wagner group and the Russian military have also been apparent for a long time, said Shaffer, adding that the latest development shows "it just came to a head."
"Just as much as I think they've been able to take a little bit of territory, it's not going to last long. And I think this is going to be put down, probably within the next two or three days," he said.
Holt, a former deputy U.S. military representative to NATO, said he agrees with Shaffer, considering the "small force that Wagner has and all of the array of resources that the Kremlin possesses."
"I think it's got a predictable ending to it, and I don't see a strategy in play here that's going to net much for Prigozhin," said Holt.
However, the rebellion could cause strategic issues for Putin, especially when it comes to China, said Holt.
"He's got allies like China watching and saying, 'Wow, do you have a handle on this? Should we still have faith in what you're trying to do in Ukraine?'" said Holt. "Then on the other side, you've got NATO leaders that are saying, 'Hey, is this the beginning of the end of Putin? Are we starting to see some daylight? Are there going to be other ways to get at him?'"
No matter what happens, Prigozhin has "set the Russian effort back severely and damaged it severely in every way you can imagine," said Holt.
But even with the rebellion being a strategic issue that will weaken Putin, Prigozhin isn't going to win his push, said Shaffer.
"[This isn't] like when Hannibal marched into Rome," he said. "What he's got to do now is create the information-war space that he can win in. This is part of it."
Shaffer added that Prigozhin has been "using some good truths" in his messaging, including when he said the war was "all about oligarchs benefiting from Ukrainian resources."
"I've said this from day one: They want the gas and oil," he said.
Meanwhile, Russia is telling the world that it's "doing great," and as that may not be completely true, Prigozhin is "trying to punch holes in that right now," Shaffer said.
Holt said Ukraine has to be "greatly encouraged" by Prigozhin's move, as its counteroffensive was not getting off to a good start after having been delayed and suffering logistics issues.
"This does breathe new life into what Kyiv is trying to get done," said Holt. "What Prigozhin's done from an informational side has done nothing but motivate the Ukrainians."
Holt further said he wants a focus kept on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been without cooling water for 15 to 20 days.
"It's only going to get worse there," he said. "While all this is going on, we've got to watch [whether] either side will take advantage of that. What does that mean for this war?"
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Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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