Former National Security Council chief of staff Fred Fleitz told Newsmax on Sunday that Iran has been "significantly weakened" by recent U.S. and Israeli military action but will remain a long-term threat.
Further, he told Newsmax's "Wake Up America Weekend," that attacks such as Saturday's drone strike at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad show Tehran is trying to intimidate the United States despite its heavy losses.
"It's trying to claim that it is winning or will win this war," Fleitz said. "But let's be clear here. The war ends when we are wise enough to know that we have won.
"We have made sure Iran will not get nuclear weapons."
Fleitz said U.S. and Israeli strikes have severely degraded Iran's military capabilities.
"We've destroyed the capability of making nuclear weapons. They're not going to have a missile capability," he said. "They have a remaining arsenal of missiles that's being depleted.
"They can't make more. Their Navy has been sunk. We've struck 6,000 targets across the country."
Despite those losses, Fleitz said the Iranian government is unlikely to collapse immediately and that Washington will need to contain the regime rather than attempt to overthrow it.
"This regime is not going to simply go down and resign or surrender to us. We're going to have to manage it over the long term," Fleitz said. "Instead of talking about regime change, we have engaged in regime weakening."
Fleitz said the strikes have created an opening for Iranians to challenge the government themselves.
"This regime is much weaker. We've created an opportunity for the Iranian people to take back the country, but we can't get involved in the quagmire," he said.
He also said President Donald Trump appears to be moving toward winding down major combat operations, and that Iranian security forces are already showing signs of strain.
"You probably saw the reports over the last week that the Basij militia and IRGC have been attacked from the air by Israel. They're now hiding under bridges in Tehran," he said. "The opportunity is there for the Iranian people to take back their country.
"It's going to be a long struggle."
Fleitz said Iran still poses risks in key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, though he said the U.S. military has the tools to address those threats.
"The U.S. Navy has very sophisticated underwater and above-water unmanned vehicles that can take care of them," he said, referring to sea mines Iran could deploy.
He added that the larger threat comes from missiles and drones launched from shore.
"The biggest threat is missiles and drones fired from shore. And that's going to be dealt with pretty substantial airstrikes over the next week," Fleitz said.
Fleitz also pushed back on the idea that Iranian actions have halted oil shipments through the region.
"Most Saudi oil is getting out of the Persian Gulf right now. It's being shipped by a pipeline that goes across the Saudi peninsula to the Red Sea," he said. "The Saudis aren't losing any money because of this blockade. The Iranians are losing money."
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