Former Trump administration official Fred Fleitz cautioned Wednesday on Newsmax that while the latest protests in Iran appear noteworthy, they are not at a scale that justifies outside military action, and certainly not by the U.S. or Israel.
Protests over high inflation and a slump in the value of the rial currency began among shopkeepers in Tehran on Sunday and by Tuesday had spread to several universities in Tehran, with a reported break-in attempt at a government building Wednesday.
Speaking to "American Agenda," Fleitz said demonstrations in Iran show signs of being "different," but warned against overinterpreting their significance too quickly.
"I would caution your viewers to note that it is still substantially smaller than protests we've seen since 2009," Fleitz said, adding that the unrest is only four days old.
Iran has experienced multiple waves of protests over the past decade, many of which initially drew international attention before being violently suppressed by the regime.
Fleitz stressed that the critical question is whether the Iranian people are prepared to sustain this momentum despite the risks.
"We have to see what's going to happen," he said. "Will the people be motivated to risk their lives to come out to protest?"
That risk, Fleitz noted, is not theoretical. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to use force, mass arrests, and even lethal measures to crush dissent.
"We know this regime has a record of violently putting down protests, and it is prepared for this," he said.
According to Fleitz, recent intelligence and observable actions suggest Tehran anticipated renewed unrest.
"There have been signs over the last few months of steps that this regime was taking to secure itself," he said, pointing to heightened internal security measures and tighter control over communications and public gatherings.
Given those realities, Fleitz argued that now is precisely the wrong moment for external military intervention. Any attack by the U.S. or Israel, he said, would likely backfire by strengthening the regime's narrative rather than weakening it.
"This is not the time for the U.S. or Israel to attack," Fleitz said plainly. "Don't give the regime an excuse to blame the instability on other countries."
Such an action, he warned, would let Tehran redirect public anger outward, portraying itself as a victim of foreign aggression and justifying an even harsher crackdown at home.
For now, Fleitz said, the situation demands patience and close observation rather than dramatic escalation.
"We have to watch carefully," he said, emphasizing that the ultimate trajectory of the protests will depend on whether they grow in size, duration, and resolve, not on foreign intervention.
GET TODAY NEWSMAX+:
NEWSMAX is the fastest-growing cable news channel in America with more than 30 million people watching!
Reuters Institute reports NEWSMAX is one of the top news brands in the U.S.
You need to watch NEWSMAX today.
Get it with great shows from Rob Schmitt, Greta Van Susteren, Greg Kelly, Carl Higbie, Rob Finnerty – and many more!
Find the NEWSMAX channel on your cable system – Go Here Now
BEST OFFER:
Sign up for NEWSMAX+ and get NEWSMAX, our streaming channel NEWSMAX2 and our military channel World at War.
Find hundreds of shows, movies and specials.
Even get Jon Voight's special series and President Trump's comedy programs and much more!
Watch NEWSMAX+ on your smartphone or home TV app.
Watch NEWSMAX anytime, anywhere!
Start your FREE trial now: NewsmaxPlus.com
© 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.