About one-fifth of the global population has an increased risk of a severe case of COVID-19 if infected, and about one-in-five of those high-risk patients would require hospitalization, according to a study published in The Lancet earlier this month.

American, British, and Chinese researchers led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimate that 1.7 billion people worldwide "have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected," and an estimated 349 million people across the globe "are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected," including "approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older."

They study found that "About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds."

The researchers note that "The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease."

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