Where people are spending their money could be a key to predicting how fast or slow the coronavirus may spread, according to a JPMorgan Chase economist.
Economist Jesse Edgerton said higher spending in supermarkets predicted a slower spread of the virus, USA Today reports.
On the flip side, the level of spending that took place three weeks ago inside restaurants, could have helped predict the current surge in cases taking place throughout the country, according to Edgerton.
Edgerton said an analysis of 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders, found that when there is more spending taking place in supermarkets that people are practicing “more careful social distancing.”
"We recognize that the interplay among the many factors that could drive the spread of the virus could be quite complex, and the states now seeing rapid spreading share other characteristics beyond their restaurant spending," Edgerton wrote in his note. "But we still find it useful to see these relationships between economic activity and subsequent spread of the virus."
Three week ago, supermarket spending was up 20% in New York and New Jersey where coronavirus cases are on the decline, according to the report. In Texas and Arizona, where there is an uptick in cases, supermarket spending was up less than 10%.
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