Tags: tropical storm | july 4

Tropical Storm July 4? Forecasts Predict It Could Be a Wet Holiday

By    |   Monday, 30 Jun 2014 05:38 PM

Weather models for July 4 are showing an 80 percent chance the season’s first tropical storm will develop near the Florida and North Carolina coasts over the holiday weekend.

A low-pressure area that drifted off the South Carolina coast is likely to develop into a tropical storm, and there’s also a chance it may form a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.

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In an updated statement late Monday afternoon, the NHC said an Air Force Reserve union reconnaissance aircraft investigated the low-pressure area, which is located about 110 miles east of Melbourne, Florida.

“While the low is well defined, the associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories,” the NHC said. “Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development, and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression.

“If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida,” the Center continued. “A turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.”

Beginning this week, the National Hurricane Center will update its reports with a graphical representation of storm activity, it was recently announced. The five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook will be available for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, and will show formation potential of current and future disturbances, a release said.

Asking whether there’s a “holiday headache” ahead, Weather.com said the longer the low-pressure area sits over the Gulf Stream and “percolates convection,” the more likely it will begin to form a tropical cyclone.

“Whether this becomes a heavy rain, strong wind, coastal flooding/beach erosion, high surf and rip current threat depends on all these uncertainties in both track and intensity,” Weather.com reported. “It is still too far out in time to make any definitive calls on potential impacts later this week.”

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Weather models for July 4 are showing an 80 percent chance the season's first tropical storm will develop near the Florida and North Carolina coasts over the holiday weekend.
tropical storm, july 4
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2014-38-30
Monday, 30 Jun 2014 05:38 PM
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