The GOP has a good chance of keeping the House of Representatives in November, thus holding on to both branches of Congress for President Donald Trump, Sabato's Crystal Ball reported on Thursday.
While Democrats hold a historical advantage – with the president's party losing ground in 36 of the 39 mid-terms since the Civil War on an average of 33 seats – the overall House map tilts to the Republican, said the publication edited by Larry Sabato out of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Sabato's Crystal Ball gives a more upbeat assessment for Republicans, while in April the Cook Political Report claimed that as many as 50 Republican seats in the House were at play, giving Democrats at the time reason for optimism, CNN reported.
"While some of the Republicans' gerrymandering advantages have been reduced through court-ordered maps in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, the overall House map still leans Republican — the median House seat measured by 2016 presidential margin, NE-2, is about four percentage points to the right of the national margin," the publication said.
"Republican gerrymanders in states like Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin endure (though a court order forced a modification in the Tar Heel State), making it challenging for Democrats to net House seats in these competitive states," the publication said.
Sabato's Crystal Ball said Democrats hope to make up the disadvantage because of the high number of open seats – 59 in all with 39 held currently Republicans. The open seats are the second highest number in the postwar era.
"Overall, our ratings show 211 House seats at least leaning to the Republicans, 198 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 26 Toss-ups," the publication said, with 24 of those toss-up seats held by Republicans.
A split in those toss-ups would give Republicans a 224-211 advantage in the House.
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