Tags: china | space station | odds

As China Space Station Falls, What Are Odds It Hits You?

As China Space Station Falls, What Are Odds It Hits You?

Screen at the Jiuquan space center in China shows the Shenzhou-9 spacecraft approching the Tiangong-1 module for automatic docking on July 18, 2012. (AFP/GettyImages)

By    |   Thursday, 08 March 2018 09:55 AM

China's space station has been falling back to Earth for two years, and now its estimated crash date is between March 29 and April 9, but the odds of Tiangong-1 hitting you are worse than you hitting the Powerball jackpot.

Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace 1, first launched in 2011, stopped functioning in March 2016, the website EarthSky.org reported, when China's space agency's lost control because the engines could no longer be fired.

The European Space Agency said on Tuesday that an updated analysis showed its window of entry is from the late March to early April dates, but those were "highly variable."

"Reentry will take place anywhere between 43 degrees N and 43 degrees S (e.g. Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, etc.)," the ESA said on its blog. "Areas outside of these latitudes can be excluded. At no time will a precise time/location prediction from ESA be possible."

Popular Mechanics magazine reported this week that the station's current orbital path, whether in the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, puts parts of the United States, the Iberian Peninsula, China, the Middle East, South America, Australia, and New Zealand into play as potential reentry locations.

Aerospace Corp., which has been monitoring the Tiangong-1, said some of the space station won’t burn up during reentry, leaving the possibility of small parts hitting the Earth's surface.

"Should this happen, any surviving debris would fall within a region that is a few hundred kilometers in size and centered along a point on the Earth that the station passes over," Aerospace Corp. said

"… When considering the worst-case location … the probability that a specific person (i.e., you) will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot. In the history of spaceflight, no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris. Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured."

China launched Tiangong-1 as a laboratory and experimental space station to test spacecraft docking hardware and capabilities, Popular Mechanics said.

© 2018 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
TheWire
China's space station has been falling back to Earth for two years, and now its estimated crash date is between March 29 and April 9, but the odds of Tiangong-1 hitting you are worse than you hitting the Powerball jackpot.
china, space station, odds
351
2018-55-08
Thursday, 08 March 2018 09:55 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved