The NOAA’s 2018 Hurricane Forecast was released Thursday with forecasters predicting a normal or above-normal hurricane season this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 75 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season for 2018, following what turned out to be a record-breaking season in 2017.
Specifically, there is a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 40 percent chance of a near-normal one, leaving a 25 percent chance of having a below-normal hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
There is a 70 percent likelihood of having 10 to 16 named storms this year, including tropical depressions with sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or higher, all the way to Category 5 hurricanes with sustained winds over 156 miles per hour.
An average hurricane season has 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the NOAA.
Some of the reasons for this years’ predictions include a weak El Nino phase that may develop during the season and near-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
The NOAA has a good track record of predicting storm patterns over the last 15 years, according to Time magazine. Furthermore, the equipment used to predict weather patterns has grown increasingly complex and can use more data than ever before to make predictions.
“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said, the NOAA reported. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”
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