One Number Changes Everything

However, none of it means a thing unless

That number is a figure showing Al Gore

If that number is not reached through this latest recount, then it is all over. Gore will have no other recourse but to quit, concede, and go away.

But if Gore goes ahead, then the psychology of this entire election changes – and changes

First of all, public opinion begins to change as people see that Gore may in fact have actually won Florida – and thus won the presidency.

And Florida state legislators, U.S. representatives and senators and, yes, even judges and justices pay particular attention to public opinion.

Second, the national news media will change how it covers the story and the two candidates. If Gore is ahead, there will be no more stories about "Democratic Defections" and "Lawmakers Urge Gore to Concede."

Now it will be Bush who will be under the gun. Will he fight on? Is he "going against the will of the people"? Will he concede? Will he be the one to take this into the courts? (With the lead switched, the story lines will be switched, too.)

Third, if Gore is ahead – and we see that number positioned at the bottom of every TV picture – what will the Florida State House and Senate do? Will they go against the popular vote of

Fourth, will the GOP-led U.S. House of Representatives risk political self-immolation by choosing a Bush slate over a Gore slate? If we thought that the GOP was severely damaged by Newt Gingrich’s loss in 1995 to Clinton over the government shutdown, we ain’t seen nothing yet.

Indeed, the psychology of this entire story changes

If Gore goes ahead by Monday morning, this story could perhaps lead to political and legal chaos – and it will go on for weeks. Plus, the political ramifications will haunt both men and both parties for years to come.

But if Bush keeps his lead when the recounting is finished, then the story is over and Gore will go away.

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