The smartest thing George W. Bush did as he pursued the
presidency in 2000 was to jettison his father's former campaign team and
start his own bid for the White House from scratch.
He realized that times had changed in the 12 years that had elapsed since his Dad was elected, and that the old guard would be set in the old ways. So, he reached out for new people with new ideas - people Dad hadn't known well back in 1988, like Karl Rove and Karen Hughes - to pilot him to victory in 2000.
But that's not the model that the next heir apparent has chosen.
Hillary Clinton now seems wed not just to the 1992 candidate himself, but
to his staff, advisors, supporters, tactics, strategy, and timing as well.
As this nearly 60 year old candidate faces younger and savvy challengers in
Barak Obama, 45, and John Edwards, 53, she seems to be showing her age
rather than grasping just how much the political world has changed since she
last trod the presidential campaign trail.
According to recent news articles, she apparently seemed genuinely
surprised that the 2008 presidential race has heated up so early. (Wake up
Hillary!) Evidently, she's been grousing to potential supporters that she
doesn't understand why she can't follow the more leisurely schedule her
husband first pursued, when he waited to announce his candidacy until the
fall of 1991. Her plan was to do the same thing. Now, with the increasing
strength of Edwards and Obama, she's being forced to get into the race and
compete. This was something that she hadn't planned on; not at all.
With Hillary's coy insistence for the past year that she hadn't made up
her mind about whether to run for president, she could hardly start publicly
campaigning. But while she was playing dumb about her candidacy, Edwards was
cleverly and effectively building the support of Democrats in Iowa, South
Carolina and New Hampshire - the early primary states. Now Edwards is in
first place in Iowa and Hillary is in fourth. He's tirelessly crisscrossing
the state. She hasn't been there in years. There's a lesson there.
Hillary appears to have been completely taken by surprise by the boomlet
for Obama. He's now tied with her in New Hampshire and ahead of her in Iowa.
The Obama phenomenon quickly knocked her out of her complacency.
Suddenly,
just days after the New York Senate election, she began to frantically
invite prominent Democratic Party types from Iowa and New Hampshire to her
home for dinner to discuss her 'potential' presidential race. Using her
BlackBerry - or more likely the old Clinton Rolodex, - she contacted the
party hacks from 10 years ago.the people who supported Bill back then. It's
been a long time since she last visited New Hampshire, and she hasn't kept
up with the changes in the Party. She's relying on the outdated Clinton
contacts, even ignoring the first female Speaker of the House, who was also
the first Democrat elected Speaker in 70 years. That's someone to pay
attention to.
Everything about the Hillary operation looks a bit out of date. Most of
her advisors are the same retreads the Clintons have always used. They
resemble nothing so much as the aging Camelot crowd that surrounded JFK and
Bobby, and reassembled tiredly to help Teddy mess up his race in 1980.
The top echelon of Hillary's brain trust is the same old White House gang
that advised them many years ago. As part of her offense after the election,
Hillary even had a highly publicized dinner with former advisers James
Carville and Paul Begala (wonder how the press ever learned of that
rendezvous). Their last presidential campaign was Bill Clinton's 1992 race
14 years ago - hardly the place to go for cutting edge political advice.
Even the Clintons declined to hire that undynamic duo for the 1996 race or
for either of Hillary's Senate race. Gore ignored them in 2000 and Kerry
refused to hire them in 2004. Hillary won't hire them either, but she still
looks backward. Maybe the nostalgia is comforting to her.
It's déjà vu all over again.
Hillary's tactics are also old. She spent much of her $40 million campaign
war chest in her 2006 run for a second term in New York building her direct
mail list. Direct mail? Hello?? Ever heard of the Internet? No up-front
costs, no turnaround time, rapid contacting, etc.
And last year, Hillary quaintly called for a post card writing campaign to
lobby for maintaining Homeland Security funding levels in New York. Again,
ever heard of the Internet, Hillary? Post card campaigns went out with the
mimeograph machine.
Sen. Clinton reportedly hopes that her meetings and the discussions about
her candidacy will remain secret, drawing around herself the same veil of
privacy she used to shroud the operations of the White House Health Care
Task Force from public view in 1993. Hey, wake up! Those days are over.
Nothing in a presidential race is kept secret.
Today's politics is a whole new world. Money is raised by the bushel and,
as a result, is no longer as decisive. Events happen faster. People seek out
candidates before they have the time to reveal themselves to the voters. A
candidate herself, actually, controls only about a quarter to a third of her
own campaign. Bloggers, Internet e-mailers, independent expenditures, party
committees, eager contributors and special interests run the rest for her.
She can't keep track of her own campaign, let alone control it.
Unless Mrs. Clinton takes a crash course in the new politics, she's not
going anywhere. These old days are over, Hillary.
Copyright 2006 Dick Morris 2006. All Rights Reserved.
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