In its "Global Trends 2015" the CIA is qualifiedly bullish on the future of the world economy, with some important caveats.
"Although the outlook for the global economy appears strong, achieving broad and sustained high levels of global growth will be contingent on avoiding several potential breaks to growth," the report reads.
It says to expect a continuation, and indeed, acceleration, of the current economic trend toward globalization - wherein goods and services, financial capital, information and culture flow freely between nation states. But the report notes that the various benefits of globalization may not be universal, and that the international financial system may become more vulnerable to volatility.
The agency report warns that among other potential world economic pitfalls is a possible sustained downturn in the U.S. economy resulting from the huge trade deficit and low savings rates; problems with ageing populations in Europe and Japan; lack of sustained growth in China and India; and failed financial reform in emerging markets.
And, there are dire warnings about the possibility of a disruption of global energy supplies. Related to this are the altogether dismal predictions for the Middle East region, which the report terms as "generally negative."
"Trend analysis shows little positive change in the region, raising the prospects for increased demographic pressures, social unrest, religious and ideological extremis, and terrorism directed both at the regimes and at their Western supporters," the report says.
The outlook is good for China, with more political reform expected, but also some disruptive structural changes brought about by China's increasing entry into the world economy through membership in the World Trade Organization. The report also warns, however, that should the Asian giant take an economic and political downturn, a "disintegrating China" would lead to a major "security challenge" for the United States, not to mention countries in the region.
Russia, the report says, may find itself even more economically challenged that it is today, largely dependent on the quality of Russian governance and economic policies. The agency report concludes that it is most likely that for the near term the Russian bear will remain "internally weak."
With regards to Russia, the report says "The stakes for both Europe and the United States will be high although neither will have the ability to determine the outcome for Russia in 2015. Russia governance will be the critical factor."
If the qualified, light and dark, economic (along with political and military) forecast of this CIA trends report is any indication, then Uncle Sam, and the agency, will have plenty to keep busy in terms of policy making and preempting problems. Of course, that justifies the CIA's existence.
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