Bush interviewed Coats in Washington on Monday, and the former Indiana Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee was the last on a short list of qualified candidates to head the Pentagon.
But although no other names have been floated for the job, conservatives are concerned that leftist groups objecting to Coats' opposition to radical changes in military personnel policies are scuttling his nomination.
"A lot depends on the sensitivities of the Bush campaign to the women's groups as well as the gay rights groups" on whether Coats is nominated, said Robert Maginnis, director for National Security and Foreign Affairs with Family Research Council, and a retired Army colonel.
"Obviously those are not big constituencies that normally a conservative Republican would pay attention to, but if Dan Coats is vulnerable in any issue, I think it's that," he said.
The Bush transition team will not comment on any nomination. But Bush aides have told reporters that Bush was delaying an announcement on his selection for secretary of defense, which is leading observers to speculate that he may be considering broadening his search.
"I think this delay is an indication that something has come up," Maginnis said. "They have been thinking about this for a long time."
In a Bush administration, defense analysts expect Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell to take the lead on national security issues, supported by the secretary of defense and Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser-designate.
Powell, however, is seen to be more liberal on social issues than Coats, although the two have worked well together in the past.
"Powell was far more willing to be sympathetic on the gay issue and on women's issues than Coats," said one analyst, who noted Powell is pro-abortion.
The question of lifting the ban on homosexuals serving openly in the military, as espoused by President Clinton in 1993, threatened to tear apart the Clinton administration in its infancy and seriously damaged relations between the president and the military for years thereafter.
The fight over homosexual rights led to the "don't ask, don't tell" compromise. This policy allows homosexuals to enlist and serve in the forces as long as they keep their sexuality private.
Bush should not capitulate to the same pressure groups that supported Clinton, and more recently failed Democrat presidential nominee Al Gore, on homosexual rights just because of his narrow victory in the election, analysts said.
"It's entirely predictable that organizations that wanted Al Gore to become president would be critical of Bush's nominee," said Elaine Donnelly, president of Center for Military Readiness, a policy group specializing in defense issues.
"Remember that Al Gore wanted to have a litmus test for members of the Joint Chiefs to see if they vigorously supported his policy of allowing homosexuals to serve openly in the military. Their guy did not win, so of course they're going to be critical of anyone Bush would appoint to the position of secretary of defense."
Maginnis said the challenge facing the next defense secretary would be to get money for expensive but necessary weapons upgrades and housing repairs from a Congress in which Republicans have only a slight edge.
"It's going to be an inside job on Capitol Hill, trying to get the additional $45 billion each year for the next few years that the Congressional Budget Office says we need to maintain status quo. At the same time, how do you build a national missile defense, leap forward to a next generation of weaponry while maintaining a fighting force? There will have to be major trade-offs, and you will need someone skilled in the legislative process like Coats to carry it out," Maginnis said.
The first thing the next defense secretary should do is "insist on absolute candor about the effects of eight years of Bill Clinton 'doing more with less,'" Donnelly said.
"We know there have been serious readiness problems. There needs to be a reversal of the wear and tear on the military, but we also must pay attention to the issue of morale, which of course affects readiness. The social engineering burdens have been very heavy."
Programs that should be opposed by the next defense secretary include co-ed basic training, the potential loosening of conduct rules, the assignment of women to submarines or to land combat units – which feminists are pushing through the Defense Advisory Committee On Women In The Services, or DACOWITS, Donnelly said.
"Coats supports women in the military, as I do, but he will not go to the excesses of letting readiness be hurt because of social engineering or the burdens of putting careers first, even at the expense of the military," Donnelly said.
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