The results of the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday puts Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a virtual tie in Texas, the latest survey to suggest the longtime Republican stronghold could flip blue for the first time in over 40 years, and shows just how dire the situation could be for Trump, explains The Washington Post.
The poll shows Trump’s approval ratings at 45 percent – three percentage points higher than his average national approval – but Biden still leads by one percentage point, 45 to Trump's 44 percent overall. In June, Trump was ahead by one point in the same poll.
However, 49 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden.
Many voters who disliked Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted for Trump, but many voters who say they dislike Trump and Biden now say they will vote for the Democrat.
“The Texas poll might be the most remarkable manifestation of that — the idea that there is a very close race in a red state that actually likes and approves of the incumbent GOP president more than his Democratic challenger,” writes the Post’s Aaron Blake.
Losing Texas would be a massive blow – the most recent Democratic nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976 – as the winner takes 38 electoral college votes, the second-largest state by electorates.
"With crises swirling through American society and a country deeply divided, there's no other way to slice it. It's a tossup in Texas," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.
Trump won Texas by nine percentage points in 2016. Now, most Texans are unhappy with the state’s coronavirus response, with 52 percent saying the state reopened too quickly and 32 percent saying it opened "at about the right pace."
Quinnipiac surveyed 880 self-identified registered voters in Texas from July 16 - 20 with a margin of error of (+/-) 3.3 percentage points.
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