Polls: Paxton Leads Heated GOP Texas Senate Primary

With Texas voters headed to the polls for Tuesday's primary election, the Republican race for U.S. Senate has tightened into a high-stakes contest between three well-known figures — with state Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow but consistent lead, according to several polls.

Three major new surveys show Paxton ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, while Rep. Wesley Hunt continues to gain traction among conservative voters.

A new survey from Quantus Insights, conducted among 939 likely Republican primary voters, shows a strong position for Paxton with 43% to Cornyn's 37.6%, Hunt at 15.7% and 3.8% undecided.

That poll finds 86% of voters already firmly committed or unlikely to change their vote — suggesting little room for late movement.

Also a recent University of Texas poll found Paxton leading Cornyn 36 to 34%.

A statewide survey conducted Jan. 20-31 by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston shows Paxton leading the Republican field with 38%, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%, with 12% undecided.

Under Texas election law, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. With Paxton well short of that threshold, a May runoff appears likely.

In hypothetical May runoff matchups, the Hobby poll finds that Paxton performs strongly. He leads Cornyn 51% to 40%, and Hunt 56% to 33%.

Cornyn, meanwhile, leads Hunt 46% to 39% in a one-on-one scenario.

The race reveals a striking generational divide. Among voters 65 and older — who make up roughly 72% of the likely Republican primary electorate — Paxton and Cornyn are essentially tied.

But among voters under 65, Paxton leads by double digits.

Paxton's coalition is anchored in voters who strongly identify with the America First or MAGA movement. Among that bloc — which makes up more than half the Republican primary electorate — Paxton leads Cornyn nearly 3-to-1.

Cornyn's strength lies with more traditional Republicans and longtime party conservatives, but that group represents a smaller share of today's GOP primary electorate.

President Donald Trump remains highly popular with Republican primary voters, receiving nearly 90% favorability in the Hobby School survey.

That political environment appears to favor Paxton, who has aligned himself closely with Trump's agenda and brand.

While still trailing, Hunt has shown steady support in the midteens and performs best among younger voters.

In the Quantus survey, Hunt reaches 26% among voters aged 18-29 and over 22% among those 30-44. Though he remains a distant third, his presence complicates Cornyn's path to consolidating anti-Paxton support before a runoff.

For now, Paxton enters primary day with momentum — but not yet with a majority.