Takeaways From the First Elections of the 2026 Campaign

The midterms are here.

The 2026 campaign kicked off Tuesday with high-profile primary elections in Texas, where Republican Sen. John Cornyn is heading toward a runoff vote against state attorney general Ken Paxton.

Democrats were deciding between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a race that became surprisingly competitive.

For all the focus on Texas, elections in North Carolina will likely have a bigger impact on which party ultimately wins the Senate majority in the fall.

In the first election since President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching dramatic attacks on Iran, there were also contests in Arkansas.

Here are some early takeaways:

One of this year’s marquee Senate contests is set.

Democrat Roy Cooper will face Republican Michael Whatley in a race that’s critical to deciding control of the Senate in November.

Both parties have reason to feel confident about their chances in the general election.

For Democrats, Cooper is an ideal candidate in one of the most politically competitive states. A former two-term governor, he’s proven he can win statewide elections.

Republicans, meanwhile, are going into the campaign with a candidate who is backed by Trump, an endorsement that could make the difference energizing voters during an otherwise challenging year for the GOP. And as the former chair of the Republican National Committee, Whatley is familiar with party resources and how they can be deployed during a tough campaign.

Still, both candidates must overcome notable challenges. While Democrats like Cooper have been successful in races for governor, they’ve struggled in Senate contests. Kay Hagan was the last Democrat to win a Senate race in North Carolina — way back in 2008.

And while Trump’s endorsement will help Whatley turn out the GOP base, it is unclear if it will help him make inroads with moderate or independent voters who could make the difference.

Get ready for what could be a messy race to November — one where spending could hit $1 billion.

Cornyn and Paxton will keep fighting for the GOP nomination through a May 26 runoff.

For Cornyn, the results keep his hopes of remaining in the Senate alive. 

Trump didn’t endorse either candidate during the primary, but the results may raise pressure on him to take a side.

Regardless of what happens, expect more cash to be pumped into the race. Cornyn and well-funded allied groups spent at least $64 million in television advertising alone since July.

While the race goes on, one person will be missing: Wesley Hunt. The congressman was a late entry into what had been a head-on contest between Cornyn and Paxton. His presence in the race further divided Republicans, making the runoff harder to avoid.