The pollsters are at it again, potentially misrepresenting the opposition to President Donald Trump, Politico reports as White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer addressed the subject on Friday.
A CNN/ORC poll revealed Friday a 44 percent approval rating for Trump, the lowest ever for a newly elected president, and CBS came in even lower Friday at a mere 40 percent approval.
Spicer shot back at Friday's White House press briefing.
"I think there's also a Rasmussen poll that showed he had a 51 percent approval rating," Spicer said, actually underestimating Trump's approval, which was 54 percent there Friday.
The variance in the numbers can be due to a number of factors, namely:
- 1. Timing of the poll. A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted before last Friday's executive orders on immigration caused a furor had Trump's approval at 49 percent.
- 2. Method of the poll, i.e. live phone interview vs. online survey, which have tended to be more favorable to Trump supporters during the presidential campaign.
- 3. Self-fulfilling prophecy or oversampling? If you disagree with Trump, you might be more likely to poll people (by group or location) who agree with you – as it was claimed during the campaign: polls tend to reach far more Democrats than Republicans.
"There could be a mode effect at play like there was during the election," Morning Consult co-founder Kyle Dropp said, referring to his poll's online survey vs. other's live-telephone method. "Additionally, our poll does not yet take into account the reaction to the immigration ban announced this past weekend."
The pollsters were borderline vitriolic against Trump during the presidential campaign, and the same ones are not stopping now.
It should be reminded, however, how many pollsters got the presidential election wrong, and in many cases not even close – something that irked Kellyanne Conway, the first female campaign manager ever to get her president into the White House.
President Trump has continued to complain about polls being rigged against him, tweeting as such last month about "rigged" and "phony" polls.
It continues to be far more chic to oppose Trump than support him, if not physically dangerous to do the latter – as conservative speaker Gavin McInnes told Newsmax TV's "The Steve Malzberg Show" on Friday night.
"The online surveys, people are more likely to put in an honest answer because they're not speaking to a human being," John McLaughlin, a GOP pollster for Trump's campaign, told Politico on Friday.
Despite the continuing polling bias, even Trump's press secretary believes the approval ratings will ultimately turn back to the president's favor once his early hard work is put into action.
"I think that as the President's policies continue to get enacted, for all the hysteria regarding his efforts to protect the country... The President understands this is a marathon, and not a sprint," Spicer said. "And as he continues to get people back to work, protect this country, I think the poll numbers will act in accord."
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