In a sweeping and stark assessment of the U.S.–Iran conflict, political scientist Robert Pape argued in a recent interview with Open 5.0 News that Tehran is gaining the upper hand in the current geopolitical standoff, while President Donald Trump faces a worsening strategic and political predicament.
Drawing on his “escalation trap” framework, Pape, a University of Chicago professor who studies air war conflicts, described a conflict dynamic that is increasingly zero-sum and resistant to diplomatic resolution.
“The bottom line is America is not winning. Trump is not in control,” Pape said, adding that “what you are seeing is a rising trajectory for Iran… it is growing… bit by bit.”
According to Pape, the balance of leverage has steadily shifted since the early stages of the confrontation, with Tehran gaining influence while Washington’s options narrow.
At the core of the conflict, Pape identifies two irreconcilable disputes: Iran’s nuclear program and its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
These issues, he argues, are inherently zero-sum.
“Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz… [and] cannot both have enriched uranium… and not have [it],” he said.
Because neither side is willing to concede on these points, escalation becomes the default path.
Pape contends that Trump has sought a “third way” — a face-saving “fig leaf” compromise that would allow him to claim victory without forcing Iran into a full retreat.
But Tehran, he says, is not cooperating.
“They’re not doing that… they want to torpedo Donald Trump’s presidency,” Pape stated, predicting Iran can undermine Trump’s support in Congress.
He suggested Iran’s strategy extends beyond immediate military or economic goals to a broader political objective: weakening Trump and, by extension, Republican prospects in the upcoming November elections.
“I think what you’re seeing… is they’re going to want to string this out… at least to November,” Pape said.
Prolonged instability, he warned, could damage the U.S. economy and undermine domestic political standing. In his view, Iran is deliberately leveraging time as a strategic asset.
Pape’s analysis goes further, arguing that Iran seeks long-term status as a major global power.
He outlined what he sees as Tehran’s strategic aims: demonstrating control over critical waterways and advancing toward nuclear capability.
“They want to go down in history as the country that torpedoed Trump’s presidency when the Democrats couldn’t,” he said.
This approach, he added, reflects “power politics of the first order,” rather than traditional negotiation frameworks. “Iran’s just beating us at power politics… almost every single day,” Pape said.
The interview also addressed alternative policy proposals, including one from former Trump official Joe Kent advocating U.S. disengagement while maintaining sanctions.
Pape dismissed this as insufficient, arguing it would still allow Iran to expand its influence regionally and potentially destabilize Gulf states over time.
“There’s no actual way to stop Iran from exerting more power in Kent’s plan,” he said.
Pape also suggested that Iran’s refusal to offer Trump a diplomatic “off-ramp” is intentional.
“They would rather wreck his presidency than give the fig leaf… for him to declare victory,” he said.
Without such a concession, Trump faces a dilemma: escalate further or withdraw without a clear win.
Looking ahead, Pape painted a bleak outlook.
He warned that continued escalation or prolonged stalemate could have severe economic consequences, including disruptions to global energy markets.
At the same time, he argued that domestic political fallout in the U.S. could intensify if the conflict drags on.
“This is not real estate negotiation,” Pape said. “This is power politics.”
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