Rasmussen Poll: GOP Holds 2-Point Edge in Congress

Republicans hold a 2-point lead in their fight to maintain a narrow U.S. House majority, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds.

Generic GOP candidates lead Democrats 47% to 45% among likely voters, with 3% saying they would vote for some other candidate and another 5% saying they are not sure who they will vote for, Rasmussen Reports found.

The latest results show that Democrats have picked up ground on Republicans, who led by 5 points (48% to 43%) in August. 

In October 2022, Republicans had a 4-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In the final poll before Election Day 2022, Republicans held a 5-point lead, and scored a net gain of nine seats to capture a 222-213 House majority.

Republicans currently hold a 220-212 seat advantage with three vacancies.

The GOP’s overall edge on the generic ballot largely is due to a 10-point advantage among independents. The poll also found:

• A large share of Republicans (87%) and Democrats (86%) say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate if the election were held today.
• Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 35% would vote Democrat, while 6% say they’d vote for some other candidate and 13% are undecided. In August, the GOP held a 19-point lead among independents.
• Female voters are almost evenly divided (45% for Republicans, 47% for Democrats) while men say they favor GOP candidates 51% to 43%.
• In August, female voters narrowly preferred Republican candidates for Congress by a 1-point margin (45% to 44%).
• Voters under 40 say they prefer Democrats, 47% to 42%, and those aged 40-64 favor Republicans 48% to 43%. Among voters 65 and older, 51% say they would vote Republican for Congress and 44% would vote for Democrats.
• 51% of white voters, 22% of Black voters, 54% of Hispanics and 47% of other minorities say they favor Republicans, while 41% of whites, 68% of Blacks, 43% of Hispanics and 33% of other minorities say they would vote Democrat if the election were held today.
• Among moderate voters, 49% say they favor Democrats and 36% say they would vote for Republicans. Also, 80% of self-described liberal voters say they would vote for Democrats and 75% of conservatives say they would vote for Republican candidates.

The survey was conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,030 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus/minus 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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