Polling analyst Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Monday that despite wide disparities in early surveys on U.S. airstrikes against Iran, he sees little evidence of Republican voters breaking with President Donald Trump.
He said, however, that some will question whether the action conflicts with his campaign pledge of "no new wars."
"The reason you're seeing a 30-point gap is the same reason there's a double-digit spread in Trump's approval numbers this week," Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, told "Finnerty."
"Polls are sampling two different Americas, and these polls aren't even measuring the same thing," Allocco said.
A Reuters survey released Monday found only 27% of American adults approved of the strikes.
An InsiderAdvantage poll, released Sunday, showed 54% approval.
CNN reported Monday that its poll showed that 41% of adults approved, but 23% of Republicans said they did not.
Allocco said methodology and wording help explain the divergence.
"One asks generically about U.S. strikes among adults," he said. "The other frames it as preventing nuclear escalation and polls likely voters."
"In today's polarized climate, wording drives the top numbers," Allocco said.
He added that partisan realignment is unlikely.
"Republicans don't suddenly become Democrats over a foreign policy strike," Allocco said.
Instead, he argued, the political risk for Trump and the GOP ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections lies in voter enthusiasm, not mass defections.
"The real risk isn't defection, it's turnout," he said. "And if voters who supported no new wars believe this was limited and strategic, they'll stay engaged.
"If it looks like escalation, enthusiasm will soften."
"Midterms are about intensity, not conversion," Allocco continued.
When asked directly how the strikes might affect Republicans eight months out from the midterms, Allocco said, "We don't see it impacting them right now."
"Again, the Republicans aren't going to wake up and become Democrats overnight," he said.
"They're going to look at this situation and they're going to assess whether or not this is a limited strategic initiative or if it escalates, they're going to become more concerned," he said.
Pressed on whether disillusioned Republicans could simply stay home in November, Allocco agreed.
"Correct," he said. "That's what we're concerned about, we're concerned about disengaging and not being there."
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