President Donald Trump’s strength grew among key parts of the electorate during the last election, a new analysis of the Nov. 3 election showed.
An analysis of county election results by the American Communities Project, which sorted data by demographic characteristics, showed that Trump performed better in big cities by two points, in Hispanic centers by 3.5 points and in working class-dominant parts of the country by nearly a point, The Washington Post reported.
For example, the analysis found that voters in the once-Democrat Trumbull County in Ohio delivered a decisive victory to Trump on Nov. 3, as did 31 counties in Iowa that voted twice for President Barack Obama, the Post reported.
Trump also shrank Democrats' margins and drew thousands more to his side in the heavily Hispanic South Bronx, liberal San Francisco, and immigrant-heavy neighborhoods of Miami, the analysis found.
The grim math could spell trouble for Democrats in the midterm elections in 2022, the Post reported.
“We won back the House and the White House in the suburbs, but my sense is we are leasing that support — we don’t own it,” said Robby Mook, the manager of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign who led the House Majority PAC.
“With Trump gone, that lease is up for renewal. If we don’t hold on to our gains in the suburbs or replace it by winning back working-class White voters, we will have a problem.”
Joe Biden has signaled that improving the lives of working people is the overriding goal of his administration, but it will be “a challenge for the Democratic Party to communicate with voters who don’t want to listen to us right now,” transition co-chair Anita Dunn told the Post.
The analysis showed that compared with 2016, Democrats performed much better in places dominated by college-educated voters, increasing their margins by 4.8 percentage points in college towns, 5.9 points in exurban communities, and more than two points in suburban areas.
But in Trumbull County, where the GM Lordstown plant once employed thousands, Trump won by 6.2 percentage points in 2016, and by 10.6 percentage points in November.
“You move Biden aside for half a second and you have a Democratic brand that is completely disconnected from workers,” Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, who represents part of the county, told the Post. “It’s working class, White, Black and Brown.”
Biden and many Democrat policy ideas were more popular than the party itself, the findings showed, the Post reported, noting Biden won in suburban areas like Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District even as more liberal politicians like Democrat Kara Eastman lost.
“We have to get over our allergy of talking about economics in a way normal people can relate to,” Democrat pollster Pete Brodnitz told the Post. “You are not going to hear about inequities and inequality. You are going to hear about jobs and making money.”
Among Latinos, Trump did well among segments of the population, including the South Florida immigrant communities and in parts of South Texas, where rural communities tend to be socially conservative, the analysis showed.
“People think the only thing Latino voters want to talk about is immigration,” Liz Jaff, the president of Be A Hero PAC, a healthcare-focused group that has been supporting Latino outreach in Georgia for the Senate runoffs, told the Post. But that is not the case, she says.
Biden’s advisers say they are well aware of the challenge.
“We have to make the case. There is no question that Democrats have to work for those votes,” Dunn told the Post.
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