Report: Dems Overperformed in Special Elections by 8 Percent

Now *final:* Dems overperformed @CookPolitical PVI by an average of 8% in this cycle's 9 House specials where both parties appeared on the final ballot. pic.twitter.com/xJTbCBsnaG

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018

To give you an idea: if Dems were to overperform PVI by 8% in all 435 districts this November (won't happen b/c of R incumbency, etc.), they'd pick up 81 House seats - more than triple the 23 they need.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018

If Dems hold all of their own seats (except #PA14) & win all 10 R seats rated Lean/Likely Dem, they'd need to win 14 more for a majority. There are 25 R seats in Toss Up & 26 more in Lean R.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018

Of the 62 seats we rate as "competitive" (Lean or Toss Up), Dems now only need to win 25 (40%) to win the majority. Republicans need to win 38/62 (61%).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018