Democrats are worried about Blacks' turnout for the 2024 election, The Washington Post reported.
That concern stems from a 10 percentage-point decline in last year's midterms – something that initially was overshadowed by Sen. Raphael G. Warnock, D-Ga., winning reelection, the Democrats' U.S. Senate victory in Pennsylvania, and House performances better than expected.
Blacks were considered a key demographic that helped give President Joe Biden victory over Donald Trump in 2020.
But last year, Blacks' decline was the largest drop among any racial or ethnic group, according to The Washington Post analysis of the Census Bureau's turnout survey.
The Post reported that Democrat analysis showed midterms turnout was much lower among younger and male Black voters in key states such as Georgia.
Republicans could see an opportunity to increase support among Blacks next year.
"My guess is Democrats for the foreseeable future will continue to do well [with Black voters], but I think there's some cultural issues that don't typically resonate with the Black community as a whole and frankly a lot of minority communities," Jay Williams, a longtime GOP strategist in Georgia and founder of the Stoneridge Group, told the Post
"Republicans will be able to peel some folks off based on that, depending on the area. It could be a real wedge issue for us."
Williams told the Post that school choice and transgender and LGBTQ issues, especially concerning children and schools, could turn some Black toward the GOP.
Ahead of 2024, Democrat activists are saying the party can't afford to let support from Black voters slip in battleground states such as Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
"The Democratic Party has been failing epically at reaching this demographic of Black men — and that's sad to say," W. Mondale Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, told the Post.
"Black men are your second-most stable base overwhelmingly, and yet, you can't reach them in a way that makes your work easier."
Robinson said that Black men in many swing states are registered but have voted in one or none of the past three presidential elections.
For that reason, Robinson said Democrats need to focus on turning out Black men more than trying to convert suburban "conservative-leaning white women."
Biden campaign officials say they are paying attention to Robinson's message.
"We have to meet them [Black men] where they are and we have to show them why the political process matters and what we have accomplished that benefits them," Democratic National Committee senior adviser Cedric L. Richmond told the Post.
"We will not make the mistake that others made of not drawing all the connections."
Terrance Woodbury, chief executive of polling firm HIT Strategies, has been sharing a PowerPoint presentation warning that the party's focus on former President Donald Trump is less likely to motivate younger Black men than arguments focused on Biden administration policy benefits, the Post reported.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll of Black Americans in May found that 17% said they would be enthusiastic if Biden wins another term, 48% said they'd be satisfied but not enthusiastic, 25% said they'd be dissatisfied but not angry, and 8% said they'd be angry about another Biden serving another four years.
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