Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is drawing early support in the 2028 Democrat presidential field, but her fourth-place standing in a new Echelon poll reflects a deeper ideological divide within the party, polling expert Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Friday.
"This is the battle for the soul of the Democratic Party, and it's playing out in real time in this poll," Allocco, co-founder of the Zoose Political Index, told "Carl Higbie FRONTLINE."
The April survey of 525 Democrat and Democrat-leaning voters showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading with 22%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 21% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 12%. Ocasio-Cortez follows with 10%.
Allocco said those topline numbers are driven in part by familiarity rather than firm voter commitment.
"What are they looking at in that poll? Name ID and news cycle familiarity. That's why Harris is up on top," he said.
Still, he argued Ocasio-Cortez's position is more significant than it appears, pointing to strong enthusiasm among progressive voters.
"The left is energized with AOC in the passion lane," Allocco said. "This is her floor at 10%. When polling reaches her coalition, she's going up."
The poll underscores a broader shift inside the Democrat electorate. According to the survey, 68% of Democrat-aligned respondents said they prefer "democratic socialism" over capitalism with regulation.
Allocco contrasted that with prior cycles.
"Ten years ago, in 2016, if you polled socialism versus capitalism, the results were split," he said. "Even today, it's a 10-point difference. In this poll, it's much wider."
He also highlighted what he described as a "fighter index" driving voter preferences, with respondents prioritizing candidates they believe will aggressively oppose President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
"They're looking at how angry they are against Trump and MAGA and who the best candidate is to fight against MAGA," Allocco said.
In that measure, 83% of respondents said Harris would fight hard, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 80% and Newsom at 78%.
The same survey found 86% of Democrat voters want their party to be more combative against Trump, reinforcing the dynamic Allocco described.
Taken together, Allocco said, the results show a party divided between establishment figures leading on name recognition and a progressive wing, energized by candidates like Ocasio-Cortez, gaining traction through intensity and ideological alignment.
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