Fred Fleitz to Newsmax: Europe's Nations May Not Join in Sanctioning Russia

Repeated U.S. sanctions of Russia have not worked over the years, and European countries such a Germany will not likely go along with a call for sanctions in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, because they will not want to affect their supplies of energy from Russia, Fred Fleitz, the president for the Center for Security Policy, told Newsmax on Saturday.

"Europe needs Russian natural gas," Fleitz told "The Count." "It's nice to talk about that we're going to have sanctions against it. But realistically, the Germans aren't going to cut off gas imports from Russia. They have to get that energy.

"They've given up nuclear power. They don't want to burn coal."

At the same time, it is not known yet if Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to invade Ukraine, despite having troops amassed at the border, according to Fleitz.

"I'm looking at the possibility that Putin is making these moves to try to divide NATO," Fleitz said, noting President Joe Biden said this past week the United States should meet with his Russian counterpart to talk about his differences with the treaty organization.

"Do you know why Putin doesn't like NATO?" Fleitz said. "Because it's an anti-Russian organization to restrain [Russia's] expansion in Europe."

New German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this past week he would consider agreeing to sanctions on Russia if there is an invasion of Ukraine, but he did not specify if stopping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia into Germany would be part of the sanctions, Bloomberg reported.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted, however, the pipeline was a commercial venture, not a political tool, and Scholz might share that belief, as his party, the Social Democrats, has been in favor of the project in the past.

Another option under speculation is to cut off Russia's access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or "SWIFT," which is used for international money transfers.

But Fleitz told host Rob Schmitt he doesn't think it will "work with Russia" to cut off the system, and he does not think Europe would risk its energy trade.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is a NATO partner, but not a member, and does not fall under the organization's collective defense agreement, even though it promised Ukraine membership back in 2008, according to The New York Times.

Making Ukraine a NATO member is a "red line" issue for Russia, Fleitz told Newsmax.

"Russia has zones of influence and for Russia, that would be a red line to make Ukraine a NATO member and sending American troops or European troops," said Fleitz, adding the United States would put that option off until a later date.

Holding off on troop deployments would not be a sign of weakness, he stressed.

"If we do that, it will probably start a war with Russia," Fleitz added.

Biden is also denying reports the White House has been urging Ukraine to give up parts of its territory to Moscow, and Fleitz agreed he does not know if that was something to which Biden would have agreed.

"What I think he did is that he endorsed the Minsk 2 talks, which would have elections in these breakaway regions that the Russian nationalists would win and break off from Ukraine," Fleitz said. "It was a very bad deal that Ukraine agreed to when it was in a bind when Russia had invaded a few years ago, and Russia's trying to say, 'well, let's just go by the Minsk 2 agreements.'

"The agreements are terrible, and I know that Biden was pushing for them. I don't think he understood what he was asking for."

And if Putin wants to invade Ukraine, "which I'm not sure he does," he might want to take just parts of the country without invading all of it, Fleitz noted.

A full-scale invasion would be costly, plus Ukraine's army is "better than it was the last time the Russians invaded. It's much better armed. It would be a long and bloody battle, and I don't think Putin plans to take the whole country, but he may plan to take part of it."

But if Putin does get away with invading Ukraine, that would mean he could start looking at the Baltic nations, which could become "very dramatic," as they are NATO member states that would fall under the defense agreement, Fleitz said.

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