Water use by both the United States and Mexico could shrink the size of the Rio Grande, which serves as the border between the two countries in places.
According to a report by
Stratfor.com the upper portion of the river could be reduced by a third towards the end of the century while lower portions could see a deficit of more than 830 million cubic meters per year.
Economic activity on both sides of the Rio Grande is blamed for the problem.
Manufacturing growth in Mexico is increasing energy use which will call for more consumption of water, including for hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, along the Rio Grande Basin.
On the U.S. side, agriculture has required more water use over the past decades, and is expected to continue.
"The gap between supply and demand will grow, as will tension along the border," Stratfor says. "The current treaties that dictate water allocation, signed decades ago, have been sufficient and their terms largely met until now. But overuse of water resources and environmental stress continue to rise, and basin conditions are poised to prevent amiable management of the water system in the long term."
Though technological efforts that decrease the need for water continue, an overall decrease in water supply will hurt manufacturing, especially on the Mexican side, and raise tensions between the two countries over the next decades.
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