The coronavirus pandemic may cause a long-term reduction in the amount of driving done in the U.S. if businesses continue to focus on e-commerce and allowing employees to work from home, according to analysis from KMPG.
“The social-distancing measures enacted to slow the outbreak dramatically cut the amount of miles Americans travel by car,” notes Gary Silberg, KPMG Partner and Global Head of Automotive Sector. “Millions of employees started working from home. And, with stores closed, consumers increased online shopping. At the height of the lockdown (in April), daily VMT (vehicle miles traveled) fell an unprecedented 64 percent, or by 160 billion miles.”
He adds that “our research suggests that the trends we focus on here – more home-based work and more e-commerce – are powerful and enduring. That leads to the ultimate question: what happens when Americans cut their driving by 270 billion miles per year (or up to about 9.2 percent)? What happens to auto makers, parts suppliers and other players in the automotive value chain? The first-order effect would be a reduced need to own a vehicle and lower demand for new and used cars. We estimate that car ownership could fall from 1.97 to 1.87 vehicles per household. That may not sound like much, but it could translate into up to 14 million fewer vehicles on U.S. roads.”
However, the focus on e-commerce could drive up sales of certain vehicles, such as vans and trucks.
"Both incumbent automakers and startups are working on innovative delivery-van designs, new power-train systems, and autonomous capabilities," KMPG notes.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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