Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair called on the West to shore up its resolve to defeat Russian aggression in Ukraine in an opinion piece published in The Telegraph on the eve of the conflict's first anniversary, saying, "What is at stake is fundamental."
According to Blair, the cause of Russia's invasion of its neighboring country is illustrated by a conversation the ex-U.K. prime minister had before leaving office with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who "by that point had given up on reform and democracy and had embraced nationalism and dictatorship."
"I tried to reason with him, following a discussion with then-American President George W. Bush, that whether Ukraine joined NATO or not should be up to them," Blair wrote. " 'It's their choice,' I said. 'It's not their choice,' he [Putin] replied. 'They're with us.'"
Putin's "imperialist vision" is incompatible with "the independent nation states of Eastern Europe, the Balkans and Central Asia," Blair said. "And that is why he must be stopped."
Noting that the Russian leader's original war objectives have "disintegrated" on the battlefield, the former British politician said Putin has revised his strategy to resemble "what he did in Syria."
"For over a decade, he has held firm," Blair wrote. "In that time, Western staying power in Afghanistan and Iraq frayed, and Putin now has Russian interests there secured. The Russian President has contempt for Western democracy and believes it will exhibit frailty over the long haul."
The determination of President Joe Biden, the United Kingdom's prime ministers, Europe and NATO to stay the course with Ukraine is to be "celebrated," according to Blair.
"We have surprised Putin and possibly ourselves," he said. "That determination needs constant reinforcing."
In addition to determination, Blair said that the increased production of weapons and munitions is needed "for our own future defence as well as for Ukraine."
"There is too big a lag between realising what weapons and munitions the Ukrainians need and our supply of them," he said.
Blair also warned that the West should "watch the Sahel" in Africa, as the region "will be the source of the next wave of extremism and migration to Europe if we do not coordinate and focus Western policy."
"The West needs a broader strategy to push back," he said, against "a campaign of de-stabilisation, involving large scale disinformation, the malign actions of the Wagner Group, the provision of arms and even the support of coups."
China must also be "engaged with," using the twin caveats of "clarity and firmness."
"President Xi [Jinping] has said to several leaders I have spoken to that he was not told of Putin's plans to invade," Blair wrote. "Maybe. They're making clear they will not support the use of nuclear weapons. And they're presenting themselves as offering a route to negotiation."
Because "Xi's influence" on Putin is "significant," there may be an opportunity to "bring Russia to an understanding of what is necessary." Blair's assessment of the situation is that the West "should keep lines open as the EU and U.S. are doing, while making it clear that active support for Russia's war aims will be a red line for our relationship."
Acknowledging that the "conflict is horrible," Blair writes that "what is at stake is fundamental."
"We have no alternative but to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes," he said. "Only when Putin understands that our resolve will not wane can we begin to hope that the conflict will end sooner rather than later."
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