Many liberals have made it a cause célèbre to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), but the polling suggests that he is far ahead of rival Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), CNN political analyst Harry Enten reported on Saturday.
He cited a Quinnipiac University poll that shows Cruz holding a 49% to 43% lead over O'Rourke in the race. Cruz has led in every poll taken in the past year, and the average poll from the past two months shows him ahead by 6 percentage points.
"I went back and looked at how predictive the June to July polling average was in 225 Senate races since 1998. All these races had one Democrat and one Republican on the general election ballot without a major third-party or independent bid.
"Candidates in Cruz's position at this point in the race went on to win about 75% of the time, according to CNN’s analysis of Senate races going back to 1998.
“The problem for O'Rourke is that there is just no history of Texans pulling the lever for Democrats statewide,” Enten said. “The last Democrat elected senator was in 1988. The last Democrat elected governor was in 1990. The last Democrat elected to any statewide office was in 1994.”
Cruz this week came out swinging at O'Rourke in one of his first Senate re-election campaign ads of the season.
"Beto O'Rourke said we should consider legalizing all narcotics, including heroin. That would be destructive to our communities and families," a narrator warns in one TV spot, posted by The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek. "Texas needs a Senator who will lead the fight against drug abuse and help those in need get back to work."
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