California may be on the brink of experiencing one of its largest seismic events in the last 20 years, the Daily Mail reported.
Researchers are closely observing the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault, historically prone to earthquakes approximately every 22 years. The absence of characteristic "signature sounds" that usually precede major quakes is causing concern, suggesting the area might soon see a significant tremor.
According to a new study published in the journal "Frontiers in Earth Science," Parkfield's periodic quakes have punctuated the region's seismic history, with notable events recorded in 2004, 1983, 1966, and 1934. As the fault section anticipates the next quake, according to Live Science, lead researcher Luca Malagnini of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy points to the possibility of a major earthquake striking as soon as this year.
The San Andreas Fault, stretching from Eureka down past Palm Springs, has long been monitored due to its potential to unleash the much-feared "big one," a major quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater, capable of inflicting significant death, injury, and property damage. Past tremors, like the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, have demonstrated the fault's destructive power, causing about $16.8 billion of damage in 20 seconds.
In 2004, the Parkfield quake demonstrated the widespread reach of such seismic activity, its impact felt from Orange County to Sacramento, and succeeded by numerous aftershocks. Despite the troubling signs and the nearing "earthquake window," scientists note the area remains unusually quiet seismically.
Malagnini's team sought to deduce a pattern from Parkfield's historical quakes. They identified a "preparatory phase" involving subterranean rock fissures in the strained region by analyzing seismic data leading up to past events. The focus was on seismic wave attenuation, observing how sound waves diminish in strength while traversing geological formations. Their data revealed a discernible change in the attenuation rate for different types of waves preceding the 2004 event.
These findings lend credence to the region's lack of volcanic activity, bolstering the reliability of seismic measurements. They affirm that the measured waves reflect the mounting stress along the fault line, unobscured by volcanic phenomena.
Though it's challenging to precisely predict the timing and location of quakes, this research potentially fuels optimism that such measurements could eventually inform earthquake forecasting systems.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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