Ron DeSantis will give Donald Trump a run for his money, after all.
DeSantis was a dead man walking after several political stumbles and then ignoring the former president's savage mauling of his record.
Trump even appeared to catch the DeSantis campaign in a major falsehood when his "Never Back Down" super PAC claimed that Lisa Smart, a New Hampshire state legislator, had abandoned Trump and switched to the Florida governor. (Smart denied her endorsement of DeSantis, but his super PAC showed that she had clearly lied.)
But then, back in March, DeSantis won his spurs in Iowa, home of the early bird caucuses. In his speech to those who came to hear him, the governor laid out why he believed he, and not Trump — whom he believed was politically damaged and would lose to Biden for a second time — was a far better bet to win not only the nomination, but also the White House.
DeSantis had loads of positive energy and a whale of a lot of statistics on how he had turned a once-Democratic state into a Republican mecca, by campaigning on every issue conservative Republicans support: no state income taxes, moderate spending, the Joe Biden-made border crisis, Anthony Fauci's lockdown, the declining crime rate, opposition to Critical Race Theory, for parents' rights, and against wokeism.
He even bragged that things are so good in Florida, both economically and culturally, that swarms of people are pouring into the Sunshine State to get away from states and cities run by Democrats. (Gavin Newsom's California and Eric Adams' New York City are prize examples).
Still, DeSantis’ most persuasive argument to Iowa Republicans was that he's a proven winner in a major state, and he knows how to win minorities over to the GOP side. When DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist in November 2022, he won by over 1.5 million votes — the largest margin in Florida’s history.
He also did particularly well with Hispanics; instead of normally lining up with the Democrats, they gave DeSantis a stunning 60% — and, in some areas, 90% — of their votes. He packaged all these highlights into about 20 minutes of pithy, passionate prose that had crowds on their feet and wildly cheering.
DeSantis has also been smartly working to gain backing from potential delegates in the early primary states. In Iowa, the crucial first delegate contest among the nation's caucus states, the total haul for his visit, as Politico reported, "represents more than one-third of the Iowa Republican legislative caucus, and far outpaces the amount of support received by any of the GOP candidates who ran in the 2016 GOP primary."
The governor’s "Never Back Down" super PAC also rolled out a list of endorsements from more than 50 of New Hampshire's prominent lawmakers. That tally includes four representatives who had previously announced their support for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.
In his own state, DeSantis picked up two critical endorsements from Senate President Kathleen Passidomo and House Speaker Paul Renner. DeSantis' boomlet in the Hawkeye State, meanwhile, has also given him momentum in Georgia, where a new poll gives him the edge over Trump, as do surveys in Arizona, another crucial swing state.
After Iowa, even the liberal media took note of his political gifts. The New York Times, which had virtually counted DeSantis out, now reports that his Iowa visit was a triumph. The Des Moines Register handed him kudos for picking up major endorsements in the Iowa House and Senate. Salon said he displayed "aggressive political instincts" with an unscheduled stop in Des Moines — a move aimed at highlighting that Trump had abruptly canceled his visit because of supposed severe weather conditions. DeSantis took full advantage of Trump's skipping the event.
Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s political guru, amplified how well DeSantis had benefited in Des Moines, writing that the candidate had called a "smart audible" in deciding to campaign at the very site that Trump had passed up.
"This upstaged the former president," Rove noted, and allowed DeSantis “to dominate news in the state's largest media market.” He met with fundraisers, mocked Trump's refusal to show up, and gained plenty of Iowan admiration and supporters.
Another sign of DeSantis’ swelling popularity: His "Never Back Down" super PAC has raised $30 million since March, half of which has come from outside his home state.
DeSantis' chances of winning the nomination have clearly risen, but his team knows that Trump is still the heavy favorite among the oddsmakers. FiveThirtyEight, in averaging the national polls for the GOP Presidential primary, showed that Trump received almost 50% of the national vote last April, while DeSantis clocked in at only 26.2%. The widely quoted polling firm is also adamant that national polls conducted the year before the election are reasonably predictive of the eventual nominee.
DeSantis has not made it easy on himself to overcome the former president. The polls show that Republicans’ position on abortion is a loser nationwide, as is DeSantis' decision to limit most abortions in his state at six weeks, which is one of the most restrictive laws in the country.
Moreover, there’s the governor’s ongoing feud with Disney, which was provoked after the Mouse Kingdom had openly criticized the governor's anti-woke policies which bar schools from teaching gender and sexual orientation from third grade through high school.
He will also continue to be assailed by Trump as someone who is out to undermine Medicare and Social Security rather than preserve it — as is, in fact, the case. (For those who wish a balanced view of Trump's many assaults, they should read CNN's "Fact-checking Trump's barrage of attacks against Ron DeSantis.")
However, DeSantis still has another card to play: Trump's disapproval ratings. According to the Morning Consult poll, Trump has an unfavorable rating of 55% among 2,000 registered voters, while only 35% have a negative view of DeSantis. Among Republicans, 18% have negative views of the former president, but only 9% have the same view of Florida's governor.
And here's another significant finding: The poll, according to Forbes, also found that DeSantis "has a higher net favorability rating in ten battleground states than either Trump or Biden." Among them: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Although who the nominee will be is far from clear, it’s likely that either Trump or DeSantis will emerge as the Republican party's choice. The first debate is scheduled for August in Milwaukee. That's only three months away, but a great political rivalry already seems to be in the making.
Allan H. Ryskind is a former editor and co-owner of Human Events, Ronald Reagan's favorite political publication. He is the author of "Hollywood Traitors" (Regnery 2015), a book which reveals how the Communist Party came close to capturing the American movie industry.
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