Republicans do not seem to be gaining any ground among independent voters even as support for Democrats continues to decline.
A new Associated Press VoteCast poll conducted with the nonpartisan and objective research organization NORC at the University of Chicago finds that while support for Democrats among independent voters has declined in the last three election cycles, Republicans are not gaining any ground with that important swing voter group.
According to the poll taken following the midterm elections last month, GOP House candidates received 38% support among independents, basically holding the same rates of 37% in 2020, and 38% in 2018. Meanwhile, support for Democrats among the group dropped by 10 percentage points in the midterms.
Democrat House candidates were supported by 51% of independents in 2018 and 52% in 2020, before dropping to just 42% in 2022, according to the polling data.
"You're never telling me what you’re going to do for the state or the country," self-identified independent voter Vickie Klang told the AP after watching a campaign ad for the Republican candidate in her district that compared the Democrat in the race to President Joe Biden. "That's a huge turnoff."
Some experts believe the GOP messaging during the cycle criticizing Biden, a Democrat, is not "resonating" with independents, and while it may do well with the party faithful in primary elections, it fails to hit home in the general election.
"You’ve got to tell them what you’re going to do," said David Winston, a Republican pollster and senior adviser to House Republicans who had been critical of GOP candidates’ messaging strategy this year. "Somehow the Republican campaigns managed not to do that. And that’s a real serious problem."
Those surveyed told the AP that while they do blame the Biden administration for some of the country’s problems, they also believe inflation may be caused by factors outside of his control, although they also said they didn’t like the way Biden is handling the issue.
"We were just being told, Pelosi bad, Biden bad, therefore Craig bad, instead of hearing, This is my plan to represent this district,'" Steve Stauff, a 42-year-old sales representative told the AP. "If you don’t bring me solutions to whatever problems you think we have, how can I take you seriously?"
The poll includes a total of around 115,000 registered voter interviews between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8 and has a margin of error of between plus-minus 2% to 7% based on the component used, according to the organization.
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