Only a few percentage points separate President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren in six battleground states, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday, with Biden leading Trump but Warren trailing him.
Trump won in 2016 by sweeping the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. In the current race, Democrats will likely need to win three of the six battleground states.
According to the poll, Trump trailed Biden by two points among registered voters, while Trump was ahead of Warren by two points. Sen. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, was shown as being deadlocked with Trump among registered voters but trailing him with likely voters.
The poll of 3,766 registered voters, conducted from Oct. 13-26, had a margin of sampling error in individual state polls of plus or minus 4.4 points, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Overall, the sample had a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
By the states:
- Biden leads Trump by 5 points in Arizona, 3 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 2 points in Florida.
- Trump leads Biden by 2 points in North Carolina.
- Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck in Michigan.
- Trump leads Warren by 6 points in Michigan, 4 points in Florida, and 3 points in North Carolina.
- Trump and Warren tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Warren came out 2 points ahead of Trump in Arizona.
- Sanders came out ahead of Trump by 2 points in Michigan and Wisconsin and 1 point in Pennsylvania.
- Trump came out ahead of Sanders in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
The 205 respondents from the battleground states who supported Biden but not Warren showed she may have difficulty winning them over.
- 26% said they have a favorable view of Warren, compared with 47% with an unfavorable view.
- 74% to 24% said they prefer a more moderate Democrat nominee to a more liberal one.
- 52% said they agree with the statement that Warren is too far left for them to feel comfortable supporting her; 26% disagreed.
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