Rasmussen Poll: GOP on Pace to Hold House Majority

Republicans maintain a 5-point lead in a generic congressional ballot in their bid to hold a narrow House majority, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Wednesday.

If congressional elections were held today, 48% of likely voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate and 43% for the Democrat, according to the survey. That margin is unchanged since May, when Republicans led 47% to 42%, Rasmussen said.

Driving the advantage for Republicans is a 19-point lead among independents. Exactly half of independents surveyed said they would vote for the GOP candidate while 31% said Democrat, according to the poll; 19% said "some other candidate" or "not sure."

Men favor Republicans 51% to 43% while the gap among women is a virtual tie, with 45% of women surveyed saying they would vote Republican and 44% said Democrat, according to Rasmussen's poll.

Republicans also held a 5-point lead on the generic ballot in the final poll before the 2022 midterms, which ended up netting them nine seats in the House to earn a 222-213 majority.

Rasmussen surveyed 1,142 likely voters on Aug. 15 and Aug. 18-19. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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