Traders placed a series of bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
It is the third time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in March was worth $500 million, while April's bets have together totaled some $2.1 billion.
– Between 3:54 p.m. and 3:56 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, according to LSEG data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely at 4:10 p.m. EDT.
– The Brent market settles at 2:30 p.m. EDT, meaning these trades took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually extremely limited.
– The trades did not have much impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After Trump's announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.20 a barrel at 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.
– On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just hours before Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire.
– On April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil price.
– The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15.
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