Even with the renewed vigor Democrats are feeling with Vice President Kamala Harris as their presumptive presidential nominee, the party is projected to narrowly remain the minority in the House, according to Sabato's Crystal Ball rankings released Wednesday.
The rankings noted that control over the House might come down to a handful of narrow-margin districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020 that could flip in favor of former President Donald Trump in November.
The most notable rating change recently is Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District moving from "leans Democrat" to "toss-up."
Both sides see this northern Denver seat as a key district, and Republicans are confident about flipping it after state Rep. Gabe Evans won the GOP nomination last month.
Sabato's Crystal Ball ranked it as a better Republican target than many of the other seats in the leans Democrat column. The district voted for Biden in 2020 by about 4.5 percentage points, approximately matching his national margin, but it backed Trump by a few points in 2016 and was bluer for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 than it was in 2020.
Colorado’s 3rd District is another example, with GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leaving it behind to seek a redder district. Former Aspen Councilman Adam Frisch nearly beat Boebert in 2022 and is running again. But pundits believe it will be more difficult for Frisch to win in a presidential year against a less controversial Republican, Jeff Hurd, who defeated a candidate more in the mold of Boebert in the primary. The Crystal Ball moved the district to "likely Republican."
Making the opposite shift is a red-trending but more competitive district on paper, Iowa’s 1st Congressional District. It has moved to leans Republican.
GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost by 6.8 percentage points in 2022. The district covers Iowa’s bluest county, Johnson, home to the University of Iowa. Democrats also plan to run against Iowa's six-week abortion ban that took effect Monday, which could help Bohannan earn a narrow upset victory.
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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