Rep. Justin Amash, I-Mich., could have a sizable impact on the presidential election as a third-party candidate according to FiveThirtyEight, though it’s unclear who his campaign will end up helping the most.
FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Marquette University’s Julia Azari wrote in an article on Monday that Amash, a conservative former Republican who is seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination for president, “could affect the margins in some key battleground states, including his home state of Michigan,” which President Donald Trump won in 2016 and was key to his triumph over Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton.
They note that “looking at the Electoral College, Amash’s impact could be most deeply felt in Michigan, where he could actually win enough votes to influence the outcome,” since his district is in the western part of the state, home to Grand Rapids and the largest number of college-educated voters in Michigan. Democrats hope to see sizable support in this region, and Amash could draw voters away from their candidate.
Amash could also win over some “never Trump” conservatives who refuse to support Trump, and might otherwise support a moderate Democrat like the likely nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden.
“Ultimately, the evidence is mixed about whether an Amash run on the Libertarian ticket would make much of an impact on the general election outcome,” Skelley and Azari conclude, adding that it’s unclear how successful Amash will be compared to previous third-party runs. “One thing shared across many of these third-party bids is this, though: They didn’t go well for the incumbent party in the White House.”
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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