A new Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday offers an early snapshot of the 2028 presidential landscape, showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom holding a narrow lead in a crowded Democrat primary field while Vice President JD Vance commands a dominant advantage among Republican voters.
The poll also indicates Democrats are gaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, buoyed by a widening edge on the generic congressional ballot.
Newsom Edges Democrat Field
Looking ahead to 2028, Newsom leads the Democrat primary contest with 20% support.
He is followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 16% and Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez draws 9%, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro receives 7%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear stands at 5%.
Notably, 24% of Democrat voters remain undecided.
The data suggest that while no candidate has consolidated the party, distinct coalitions are beginning to form.
"Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Ocasio-Cortez posts a plurality among voters under 30 with 20%, signaling strength with younger progressives.
Buttigieg leads among women at 20% and holds a plurality among postgraduates at 21%, underscoring his appeal with highly educated voters.
Newsom, meanwhile, performs best among voters over 50, earning 23% support in that demographic.
Harris dominates among Black voters, capturing 36% of that bloc — by far her strongest constituency in the early contest.
The sizable undecided share suggests volatility remains in the Democrat field.
With nearly 1 in 4 voters uncommitted, shifts in name recognition, fundraising, or national conditions could quickly reshape the standings.
Vance Dominates GOP Primary
On the Republican side, Vance posts a commanding 52% — more than double his nearest competitor.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 20%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis garners 6%. Eleven percent of Republican voters are undecided.
Kimball noted that Vance's support is even more consolidated within the GOP base.
Among self-identified Republican voters, 59% back Vance compared to Rubio's 19%.
Independents who say they plan to vote in the 2028 Republican primary also favor Vance, though by a narrower 33% to 23% margin over Rubio.
The results indicate that at least at this early stage, Republican voters are coalescing rapidly around the vice president, presenting a stark contrast to the more fragmented Democrat field.
Democrats Gain for Midterms
Beyond the presidential race, the poll points to Democrat momentum heading into the 2026 midterms.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 42% — an 8-point advantage and a 2-point increase from last month's survey.
Independents break decisively for the Democrat candidate, 50% to 37% — a significant development, given their pivotal role in recent national elections.
The shift suggests that Democrats may be benefiting from issue salience and voter perceptions of economic stewardship.
Cost of Living Tops Voter Concerns
When asked to rate the importance of key issues on a 1-to-10 scale, voters ranked cost of living highest, with a mean importance score of 8.2.
Healthcare costs followed at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.
The issue breakdown reveals sharp partisan divides. Democrats rate healthcare costs as especially important, with a mean of 8.6, while ranking border security lowest at 4.9.
Republicans, by contrast, prioritize border security (8.3) and deportation policy (8.2), both considerably higher than Democrats and independents. Independents' top concern mirrors the broader electorate: cost of living, at 8.2.
The findings suggest that economic pressures — particularly everyday expenses — may drive voter behavior in 2026, even as immigration and border enforcement remain potent motivators for Republican voters.
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted Feb. 21-22 among 1,000 U.S. likely voters. The poll carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, similar to a traditional margin of error.
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