The U.S. is poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year decline in homicides ever recorded, according to preliminary crime data from cities across the country.
ABC News reported that based on a sampling of crime statistics from 550 U.S. law enforcement agencies, homicides are expected to fall by roughly 20% nationwide.
Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, told the network, "So, even taking a conservative view, let's say it's 17% or 16%, you're still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025."
The decline follows a 15% drop in homicides in 2024, which had set the record for the largest annual decrease. Homicides fell 13% in 2023 and 6% in 2022, according to FBI data.
Asher said the total number of homicides nationwide is expected to be the lowest since the FBI began tracking such data in 1960.
His analysis is based on the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles monthly crime data from hundreds of police departments nationwide.
The FBI's official annual crime report is not expected until the second quarter of 2026, leaving analysts to rely on preliminary figures.
Earlier FBI data showed homicides declined 18% between September 2024 and August 2025, while violent crime overall fell 9% and property crime dropped 12%.
Several major cities are on track to record their lowest homicide totals in decades.
Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are expected to post their fewest murders since the 1960s. New Orleans is on pace for its lowest total since 1970, while San Francisco could record its fewest homicides since 1940.
Chicago homicides are down 30% compared with 2024 and nearly 50% compared with 2021, according to city data.
Asher said the downward trend extends beyond homicides.
"We're seeing across-the-board drops in every type of reported crime," he said, noting that aggravated assaults are down 8% nationwide and motor vehicle theft has fallen 23%.
Robert Boyce, a retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, said the data reflects a return to conditions seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.
"When the pandemic hit, courts shut down, schools shut down, and policing changed," Boyce said. "We couldn't do our job like we did in previous years."
Boyce said homicides surged nationwide during that period but have steadily declined as law enforcement agencies adjusted tactics and increased coordination with federal prosecutors.
"We fought back. We saw gradual decreases," he said.
As of late December, homicides in New York City are down more than 20% from last year, and shootings are at historic lows.
"I'm seeing now that we're back to normal. The reset is here. That's great news," Boyce said.
Even as the year ends with highly publicized violent shootings, experts say the data shows a sustained national decline in violent crime, marking a sharp reversal from pandemic-era peaks.
Jim Mishler ✉
Jim Mishler, a seasoned reporter, anchor and news director, has decades of experience covering crime, politics and environmental issues.
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