Will Results in German State Election Bring Down Chancellor Scholz?

On Sunday evening, the eyes of Germany, Europe, and certainly Washington, D.C., will be on the state of Brandenburg in the former East Germany.

Should the nationalist Alternative for Germany party emerge triumphant in state elections, it will surely make worldwide news. An AfD win would raise new doubts about the federal government of Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz and very possibly lead to Scholz’s replacement as chancellor before national elections next year.

Just two weeks ago, the AfD, which underscores opposition to illegal immigration and Germany’s support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, came in first in state elections in Thuringia and placed a tight second in the state elections in neighboring Saxony.

A just-completed poll by the German ARD Broadcasting of likely voters among the 2 million Brandenburgers showed the AfD leading with 28%, the Social Democrats at 26%, and the CDU (conservative) Party, which is the main opponent to Scholz’s SPD nationwide, at 14%.

Asked by reporters about the scenario of the AfD placing first in Brandenburg Sunday and possibly forming its government, Burhan Kesici, president of the Islamic Federation of Germany, described it as “worrying” and said: ““We see that politics is a little harsher, especially on Muslims and foreigners.”

Clearly worried about the outcome, the Social Democrats — who have ruled Brandenburg since the former Communist East Germany joined with the West in 1990 — never mention Chancellor Scholz (who is a resident of Potsdam, capital city of Brandenburg).

Taking a page from the book of Charles de Gaulle when he threatened to resign over a 1969 referendum in France, Brandenburg’s popular state Premier Dietmar Woildke has said he will step down if his party does not win again Sunday.

Given the tidal wave that would commence with an AfD win, it would be a foregone conclusion that current party members would call for Scholz to step down and yield to a more popular figure — possibly Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

“No,” Martin Klingst, columnist for the venerable German publication Die Zeit and best-selling author told Newsmax, “there will certainly be some party members who would like to see a change at the top in this case and may even call for it publicly. But there will be no general movement to replace him.”

Klingst added that “should Scholz resign, a potential successor would have to rally the coalition behind him and have a majority in Parliament in order to be elected as the new chancellor. That could be difficult. 

“If it doesn't work out, there would have to be new elections, which the SPD would have to fear in the current situation.”