Former President Donald Trump maintains leads in Florida and Texas, though Vice President Kamala Harris has moved within the margin of error in both states, according to new Emerson College polling.
Trump leads by 5 percentage points (50% to 45%) in Florida with 5% undecided, and by 4 points (50% to 46%) in Texas where 4% are undecided, Emerson College Polling found.
While still unlikely, flipping either Texas or Florida would make Harris' path to 270 electoral votes easier and Trump's path considerably harder.
The forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Trump an 83% chance of winning Texas and a 75% chance of winning Florida.
In both Florida and Texas, Trump has a Trump 51% favorable rating and a 49% unfavorable rating, Harris' shares are 49% and 51%, respectively.
The Emerson College poll also found a significant gender gap.
Trump leads among Texas men by 18 points, an increase from 17 points in 2020, and among Florida men by 12 points, up from 9 points four years ago.
Harris is ahead among Texas women by 8 points, up from 3 points, and among Florida women by 2 points.
Neither Harris nor her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have campaigned in Florida, Florida Politics reported.
DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, former DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried were campaigning for the ticket in the Sunshine State this week.
Emerson College Polling also surveyed the U.S. Senate races in Florida and Texas.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is clinging to a 1-point lead (46% to 45%) on Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell with 9% undecided.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, holds a 4-point lead (48% to 44%) over Democrat challenger Colin Allred with 8% undecided.
The state surveys were conducted Sept. 3-5 among 815 likely voters in Florida and 845 likely voters in Texas. The margin of error for Florida was 3.4 percentage points, and the margin for Texas was 3.3 percentage points.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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